The finance chiefs’ call comes amid a dispute over budget plans that the EU says go against Italy’s commitments to reduce its debt load. In an unprecedented rebuke, the European Commissionasked Italy last month to submit revised spending plans by Nov. 13, after it essentially rejected the country’s budget for 2019, saying that it constitutes a clear deviation from commonly agreed rules.

But despite repeated warnings, Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria told reporters after the meeting in Brussels on Monday with his euro-area counterparts that the government would not change the budget law. The defiance means that even though Italy is willing to engage in talks with the commission over its spending plans, it’s unlikely to make sufficient concessions to appease Brussels.

“We expect a new and revised draft budgetary plan by Nov. 13 and that is a necessity,” EU economic affairs chief Pierre Moscovici told reporters after the meeting. “And the questions we have raised are still on the table.”

Better Explanations

The commission’s call for a revised budget came after months of discord over the spending targets, which sent Italian bond yields to a four-year high last month.

But Tria also expressed optimism that Italian securities would recover. “We hope that the spread will go down when our strategy is better understood,” he said. “And maybe after the dialogue with the commission.”

During Monday’s meeting, the Italian finance chief told his colleagues that the country’s planned deviation was not huge and that EU rules allow for some flexibility, while he reiterated his government’s commitment to reduce the country’s debt load, an official familiar with the discussion said.

But Italy’s willingness to further explain the numbers and policies in the spending plans is unlikely to be enough to address the commission’s concerns.

In a joint statement, the bloc’s ministers said they agreed with the assessment by the commission and called on Italy to engage in “open and constructive dialogue” and to cooperate closely with the commission “in the preparation of a revised budgetary plan which is in line with the stability and growth pact.”

The statement also stressed the importance of sufficient debt reduction, a clear message to Italy, which has the highest debt ratio in the euro area after Greece.

‘Plan B’

Despite repeated warnings, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has said there’s no “Plan B” for the fiscal program, indicating the government has little intention to comply with EU demands.

Once Italy responds to the commission, the EU’s executive arm will have three weeks to publish its final assessment on whether the country’s spending plans are in breach of EU rules. One possible outcome, EU officials say, would be for the commission to bring up to Nov. 21 the publication of a report on Italy’s compliance with EU rules on debt that was originally planned for the spring.

EU Rules

If the report shows that Italy is failing to comply with rules on reducing its debt — which is more than twice the EU limit — then that could trigger the so-called excessive deficit procedure, a process that could eventually lead to financial sanctions for the government in Rome. The penalty could reach 0.2 percent of the country’s annual economic output, which was 1.7 trillion euros ($1.9 trillion) in 2017.

Euro-Area Finance Chiefs Talk Italy Amid Sanctions Threat

Financial penalties proposed by the commission have to be approved by member states, which can block the process. But while Brussels has limited powers over national budgets, governments have in the past sought to avoid an official reprimand because of the stigma and the potential market implications.

Under EU rules, no country should have a budget deficit larger than 3 percent of gross domestic product or debt above 60 percent of output and those that are outside of those limits must set annual targets to show they’re moving in the right direction. While Italy’s deficit is well within the 3 percent limit, the commission has demanded smaller gaps for the country to bring down its debt load.

Among the proposals for compromise: up to 17 billion euros ($19.4 billion) earmarked for the so-called citizens income program and for reform of the pension system could be placed in a separate fund as a “standby,” the newspaper said, without citing anyone.

The funds would then be attributed to the relevant programs “only if the situation permits it,” Messaggero reported. Reform of the pension plan, originally targeted at a cost of 7 billion euros, could fall to 5.5 billion euros.

Conte and Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, “with tacit support” from the government’s main backers, Matteo Salvini of the League and Luigi Di Maio of the Five Star Movement, have also floated a possible “re-modulation” of the citizen’s income program — an aid plan for needy Italians.

The possible adjustments could bring Italy’s deficit to 2.3 percent, compared with the 2.4 percent in the current budget plan, Messaggero reported, citing a person working on the plan.

Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rank by one step to Baa3, its lowest investment-grade rating, on concern the government’s budget will erode its fiscal strength and stall plans for structural reform. But its decision to set the outlook for the assessment at “stable” may be enough to reassure investors after a selloff pushed yields on the nation’s 10-year bonds to the highest since 2014.

“This was the softest move possible and should be a relief for investors,” Ciaran O’Hagan, the head of euro-area rates strategy at Societe Generale, said in emailed comments. He recommended investors buy Italian government bonds after the decision. “Uncertainty has been removed. This deserves to be rewarded with a good rally.”

Italy’s financial markets have been under pressure since the coalition government pushed for a higher-than-expected deficit in its budget, damaging investor confidence in its ability to reduce its 2.3 trillion-euro ($2.7 trillion) debt load and setting it on a collision course with European authorities. It also raised concern ratings firms would cut the nation below investment grade, triggering forced selling of government bonds.

While it leaves Italy with its lowest credit rating since the euro was formed, the downgrade fell short of investors’ worst expectations, paving the way for a relief rally. The 10-year yield touched 3.81 percent on Friday, a level last seen in 2014 when the nation was still recovering from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. And while the securities did stage a late-day bounce to close at 3.48 percent, that’s still more than double this year’s lows and represents a premium of more than 300 basis points over benchmark German bunds.

By some measures, Italian bonds had already been trading in line with junk-rated nations.

SocGen wasn’t alone in expecting Moody’s to stick at a “stable” outlook. A one-step downgrade may see the 10-year yield spread narrow toward 250 basis points, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA saidbefore the decision. Strategists at Citigroup Inc. saidthe yield gap would drop below 300 basis points in their base-case scenario of a one-notch downgrade and the removal of the negative outlook.

S&P Global Ratings, which rates Italy two notches above junk, is due to review the country on Oct. 26. Having upgraded Italy this time last year, that company “is not going to want to yoyo around,” SocGen’s O’Hagan wrote. Once its decision is out of the way, it will “eliminate one more uncertainty in the lead-up to year-end,” and that will translate into higher prices for Italian government bonds, he said.

Still, there are plenty of question marks hanging over Italy. Its swollen debt relative to its gross domestic product gives the government little financial wiggle room, while it remains under pressure due to internal disputes within the volatile coalition at home and European Union criticism of the budget.

The country’s biggest newspapers have already been running front-page stories about the bond spread as investors balk at the budget targets unveiled by the populist government. It may take further reassurances before “lo spread” — which entered Italian vernacular when the country was struggling to survive the European debt crisis — moves back out of the spotlight.

The prospect of turmoil within the ruling coalition is likely to become the dominant theme for bond investors from now on, according to Raffaele Bertoni, head of debt-capital markets at Gulf Investment Corp. in Kuwait City.

There’s a continued “risk of tension within the coalition over the budget,” Bertoni said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Going forward, the market will focus more on the internal issues of the Italian government rather than the rating.”

The spread will tighten no more than 20 basis points on Monday, Bertoni added.

The continent’s politicians are gearing up for an epic campaign that may determine whether six decades of integration can survive a resurgence of nationalism.

Still, the voters who will decide are yet to really tune in, with a third saying they most likely won’t participate, according to the Eurobarometer survey published this week.

European voters have traditionally paid far more attention to their national elections than ballots for an EU legislature that still feels distant for many.

People really care about immigration, the key issue for nationalists like Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orban of Hungary. The plan for more integration that French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing fails to stir passions in the same way.

It may be the U.K. that’s due to leave before the election, but Italians are even less enthusiastic about EU membership.

But most people aren’t even of when this election is due to take place anyway. (It’s May 23-26.)

The yield on Italy’s 10-year surged as much as 15 basis points to around 3.70 percent on an intraday basis, widening the spread over equivalent German debt to levels unseen since 2013, while Europe’s common currency slid as much as 0.4 percent to $1.1455. Italy’s Draft Budgetary Plan for 2019 constitutes “an obvious significant deviation” from European Union rules, Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Pierre Moscovici wrote in a letterto the country’s finance minister that was released publicly after the local bond market closed.

The missive from the EU marks the start of a process, which could culminate in a decision by the European Commission to issue a negative opinion next week — essentially rejecting Italy’s budget — and asking the Italian government to send it back with revisions. That has never happened before.

“The Italian government is going to get further into this standoff with the EU,” said Ben Emons, chief economist at Intellectus Partners LLC. “The market is continuing to realize that there is not going to be an easy resolve and there will be a lot of brinkmanship as we are seeing.”

Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said the EU and Italy have different views about the country’s policies and he hoped “with dialogue” these views would “come closer together.” Moscovici said the letter is not final and there is still time which should be “used productively” to continue to exchange views.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi for his part told EU leaders at a summit in Brussels Thursday that questioning the bloc’s rules can worsen financial conditions and damage growth, according to an official familiar with his remarks, which are likely aimed at Italy’s budget dispute with the Commission.

For story on EU’s comments on Italian budget, click here.

The country also faces credit-rating decisions from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service before the end of the month, with both companies ranking Italy just two notches above junk.

The market moves came in the wake of an bond exchange operation by the Italian Treasury, which saw the government switch 3.8 billion euros ($4.38 billion) of inflation-linked securities, known as BTP Italia, for five nominal bonds with maturities ranging from 2025 to 2046. That was more than the 3 billion-euro outlined by the Treasury beforehand, but bond investors soon took umbrage, pushing the yield spread over Germany to the highest level in more than five years.

‘Despondent Mood’

“The Treasury released much more duration in the market, which is going to weigh on BTPs as whole,” said Antoine Bouvet, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc. “This confirms the despondent mood in BTP markets.”

Italy’s bonds have been roiled in recent months by the prospect that its new government’s spending plans would fall foul of EU rules and add to its already hefty stock of debt — around 130 percent of gross domestic product. The Treasury likely wanted to take advantage of a slim window of opportunity before headlines continue to bruise Italy’s ailing debt market, according to Societe Generale SA.

“They need to raise cash so finding a quiet time to do that is important,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy. The Italian Treasury “needs to refinance maturing debt by issuing new bonds and that process is almost continuous given that Italy is Europe’s largest issuer.”

Italy bought back the BTP Italia maturing in April 2020 and sold bonds maturing in 2025, 2028, 2029 and 2046 through a syndication of banks. Italy’s 10-year yields climbed 11 basis points to 3.66 percent, with the spread over Germany hitting 326 basis points, the highest level since April 2013. The bonds of Spain and Portugal also dropped, with the former having to digest its own wave of supply, while yield on U.S. Treasuries fell amid a bid for safer assets.