At the start of this year it seemed as if Greece might have turned a corner. After a downturn that lasted longer than America’s Great Depression, its economy was growing again. Market capitalisation at the Athens Stock Exchange rose by 47% in 2019, the sharpest increase in the world. Tourism was booming, consumers were spending and Greek banks were reducing their burden of non-performing loans.

Business confidence at the start of this year was at an all-time high, bolstered by the election last July of a pro-business conservative prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who promised to sweep away obstacles to business. The Harvard-trained former banker started well. He cut Greece’s labyrinthine red tape to make it easier to start a new business. He reformed labour laws, reducing the cost of firing an employee. He lowered taxes on corporations from 28% to 24%. Last September he fully lifted capital controls for individuals and companies. In November he signed off on a €600m ($650m) investment by China Ocean Shipping Company in Piraeus, Greece’s largest port.

That cheery mood seems like ancient history. Greece faces some of the severest disruption of any euro-zone economy, says Jakob Suwalski of Scope, a credit-rating agency, who predicts a fall of anything from 7% to 18% in gdp this year. No country in the euro zone other than Cyprus depends more than Greece on tourism, which has practically ceased to exist. The sector accounted for half of economic growth in 2018, more than 20% of gdp (90% in some parts of the southern Aegean) and a quarter of the country’s jobs. Now the tourists have stopped coming. On March 19th the government ordered hotels across Greece to close from March 23rd until April 30th, a date that will surely be extended. The Hellenic Chamber of Hotels estimates that the loss of profits thanks to cancellations has already exceeded half a billion euros.

In mid-March the Greek government restricted public gatherings to ten people. It also banned arrivals of non-European Union residents and travel to and from Albania, Italy, North Macedonia and Spain. And it ordered the closure of all retail businesses other than supermarkets, pharmacies, petrol stations, pet shops, food-delivery companies, groceries, bakeries, kiosks and banks. Greece is a nation of small businesses, most of which have scant resources to weather hard times. On March 23rd the government further tightened restrictions by imposing a national lockdown.

On top of an emergency boost of €10bn, Mr Mitsotakis insists that the country has “more weapons” to protect the economy, after around €12bn of its paper was declared eligible for inclusion in a €750bn bond-purchasing programme that has been launched by the European Central Bank. That should help to hold down the risk premium on Greek government debt. It is also, perhaps, a signal that the eu is prepared to believe in Greece’s recovery—once the virus is tamed.

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Germany is set to abandon six years of fiscal restraint with a blowout budget designed to save its economy from the brutal effects of the coronavirus pandemic and protect thousands of businesses from imminent ruin.

Angela Merkel’s cabinet is meeting on Monday to approve new borrowing of €356bn — equivalent to nearly 10 per cent of Germany’s gross domestic product — marking a new era in fiscal policy and a radical departure from Berlin’s long-held aversion to debt.

It reflects growing alarm in government circles at the profound impact the epidemic is having on the eurozone’s largest economy as big industrial companies shut down production, the service sector is disabled and economic activity melts away.

Ministers will consider plans for a €156bn supplementary budget for 2020, including a €50bn hardship fund to help small businesses and freelancers whose revenues are collapsing as the virus spreads.

They will also approve a €100bn economic stabilisation fund that will be used to take stakes in companies crippled by the fallout from the pandemic, according to a person familiar with the plans, paving the way for a radical state intervention in the workings of the market economy.

The blueprint also envisages a €100bn loan from the new stabilisation fund to the KfW, Germany’s state development bank, which is providing unlimited loans to firms facing a cash crunch under a programme announced by the finance minister Olaf Scholz earlier this month.

The stabilisation fund will also be equipped with €400bn in guarantees to underwrite the debts of companies affected by the turmoil.

The fund is a reactivation of Soffin, a government-backed vehicle set up in 2009 to bail out troubled banks. It will not only underwrite debts but also be able to inject fresh capital into stricken companies, effectively paving the way for a wave of partial state takeovers.

Just as the state helped the banks after the financial crisis, “we are now prepared to provide equity for the real economy,” Mr Scholz told German radio on Friday. The state had to help companies “that employ an incredible number of men and women and which all of a sudden have no business”.

The moves represent an extraordinary intervention by the state in the private sector. “We will not allow a bargain sale of German economic and industrial interests,” said economy Peter Altmaier. “There should be no taboos. Temporary state aid for a limited period, up to and including shareholdings and takeovers, must be possible.”

The huge increase in spending marks a radical break from the “schwarze Null” or black zero, the policy of balanced budgets and no new borrowing that has been part of German economic orthodoxy for years and has helped to deliver six consecutive annual surpluses.

The policy has become increasingly controversial in recent months, with leading economists both at home and abroad urging the government to take advantage of low interest rates to assume new debt and invest in Germany’s crumbling infrastructure.

But the black zero is now a thing of the past. Angela Merkel, chancellor, made it clear at the start of the coronavirus crisis that she was prepared to set it aside in order to ensure the survival of the German economy.

“We’re doing whatever is necessary,” she said on March 11. “And we won’t be asking every day what it means for our deficit.”

The new fiscal policy came as a number of German regions imposed a lockdown on their citizens and closed all restaurants, bars and beer-gardens. Bavaria said people would only be allowed to leave their homes to go to work, buy food or visit the doctor: they could exercise in the open air but only alone or with close family members. The German foreign ministry has also advised against any tourist travel abroad until the end of April.

As well as passing the supplementary budget and reactivating Soffin, ministers will also be asked to loosen one of the country’s most important fiscal rules — the constitutional debt brake. Introduced in 2009 it limits any new government borrowing to just 0.35 per cent of GDP, adjusted for the economic cycle.

But exceptions are allowed. Germany’s constitution says the Bundestag can relax the debt brake when Germany is hit by emergencies such as natural catastrophes that “significantly impact the government’s fiscal position”. Coronavirus is a clear example of such an eventuality. A Bundestag vote is expected in the next few days.

“This essentially paves the way for unlimited borrowing,” said the person familiar with Mr Scholz’s plans. He said it fitted in with the European Central Bank’s announcement last week that it would buy an extra €750bn of bonds in a bid to calm markets thrown into turmoil by the pandemic. “The ECB’s message to the EU member states was clear,” he said. “Fill your boots with debt.”

Though the proposals being put before the cabinet on Monday mark an extraordinary volte-face in policy terms, officials stress that Germany was only able to adopt such expansionary measures thanks to the budgetary restraint of the past few years.

“Even a few weeks ago people were saying we’d gone too far, that we were too focused on husbanding our resources,” Mr Scholz said on Friday. “Now you can see we acted correctly.”

Germany’s “economising” over the past few years had brought its debt-to-GDP ratio to below 60 per cent, he said. The equivalent figure in France is 98.9 per cent and 134.8 per cent in Italy.

Meanwhile, the public finances have rarely been in such robust health. There are reserves of €55bn in the federal budget, of €26bn in the federal labour office, which dispenses unemployment benefit, of €103in the social security system, and of nearly €20bn in the health service — the statutory “Krankenkassen”.

Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB’s governing council, said that until recently there had been “passionate debate” in Germany about the wisdom of sound public finances. “Now we can see very clearly: it was exactly right that Germany consolidated its budget when the economy was doing well,” he told Die Welt on Saturday. “Now we have the latitude to deal with this crisis. Our starting position is advantageous.”

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(Bloomberg) —

The European Union‘s first high-level meeting since Brexit risks ending in acrimony, with member states at odds over how to cover a gaping budget hole caused by the loss of British contributions.

The extraordinary summit in Brussels to nail down a seven-year spending plan kicks off on Thursday afternoon, but no end time has been set and diplomats fear negotiations could drag on through the weekend. Even then failure remains the likeliest outcome.

The trillion-euro budget is a cornerstone of EU policy that lets farmers compete against imports from the developing world, helps poorer states catch up with the rich ones and underpins projects that bind the union together. But it’s also a lightning rod for the tensions running through the bloc and after three years of uncharacteristic unity during the Brexit negotiations, passions are now running high.

“There is a way forward to find an agreement during this summit,” French President Emmanuel Macronsaid on his way into the meeting, adding that he would spend as much time as needed to get an ambitious agreement. “This pathway can take a few days, a few nights, I am ready.”

The outcome of the battle will signal if Europe is prepared to spend more collectively to further its goals, whether it wants to prioritize innovation over handouts to traditional industries and whether it’s prepared to wield its financial muscle to force member states like Hungary and Poland to respect the rule of law.

Britain’s departure from the EU leaves a hole of at least 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in the budget that needs to be plugged by either cutting spending or making others pay more.

But the EU’s shifting priorities also require more money for issues like climate change and migration and those who gain from the traditional focus on agriculture and regional development are fighting to keep their benefits.

Essentially though, the EU is split into two basic camps: those who want to spend more, and those who can see they’ll get stuck with the bill.

Two Camps

The Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden have argued for keeping the spending ceiling at 1% of the EU’s gross national income and for a permanent system of rebates to limit their contributions. They want to focus on new priorities and to curb the outlay in traditional areas and have called for tougher conditions on adhering to the rule of law.

“Our countries are firm in our priorities. We cannot accept a drastic increase in our fees. We are willing to continue to pay significantly, but there are limits,” Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofventweeted after a meeting with the other three so-called frugal leaders. “It will be a tough negotiation.”

Charles Michel

@eucopresident

I am grateful to the EU leaders for the hard work we’ve done together.

There are many legitimate concerns, but I am convinced that it is possible to make progress.

Everything is on the table in order to decide #EUCO #MFF