{"id":6246,"date":"2016-04-19T01:09:55","date_gmt":"2016-04-18T22:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/?p=6246"},"modified":"2016-04-19T01:09:55","modified_gmt":"2016-04-18T22:09:55","slug":"ecb-policy-meeting-different-things-to-worry-about","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/archives\/6246","title":{"rendered":"ECB POLICY MEETING: DIFFERENT THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-animation=\"no-animation\" data-icons-animation=\"no-animation\" data-overlay=\"\" data-change-size=\"\" data-button-size=\"0.7\" style=\"font-size:0.7em!important;display:none;\" class=\"supsystic-social-sharing supsystic-social-sharing-package-flat supsystic-social-sharing-content supsystic-social-sharing-content-align-left\" data-text=\"\"><a data-networks=\"[]\" class=\"social-sharing-button sharer-flat sharer-flat-1 counter-arrowed facebook\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Facebook\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbestinsurance.gr%2Fa1%2Farchives%2F6246\" data-main-href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u={url}\" data-nid=\"1\" data-name=\"\" data-pid=\"1\" data-post-id=\"6246\" data-url=\"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-mailto=\"\"><i class=\"fa-ssbs fa-ssbs-fw fa-ssbs-facebook\"><\/i><div class=\"counter-wrap arrowed\"><span class=\"counter\">0<\/span><\/div><\/a><a data-networks=\"[]\" class=\"social-sharing-button sharer-flat sharer-flat-1 counter-arrowed twitter\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbestinsurance.gr%2Fa1%2Farchives%2F6246&text=ECB+POLICY+MEETING%3A+DIFFERENT+THINGS+TO+WORRY+ABOUT\" data-main-href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url={url}&text={title}\" data-nid=\"2\" data-name=\"\" data-pid=\"1\" data-post-id=\"6246\" data-url=\"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-mailto=\"\"><i class=\"fa-ssbs fa-ssbs-fw fa-ssbs-twitter\"><\/i><div class=\"counter-wrap arrowed\"><span class=\"counter\">0<\/span><\/div><\/a><\/div><p>ECB POLICY MEETING: DIFFERENT THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT<\/p>\n<p>The ECB is facing a complex, albeit not completely negative, macro-financial environment following its impressive <a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/11\/ecb-delivers-a-bigger-than-expected-package-to-support-bank-lending\/\">policy package announcement on 10 March<\/a>. Nevertheless, barring some new shock, beyond some fine-tuning measures, the ECB should remain on hold at its next policy meeting on 21 April. Instead, we expect different aspects of the ECB\u2019s existing policies to be in focus in the coming days and weeks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15179\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-15179\" src=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1-550x344.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1-550x344.jpg 550w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1-768x480.jpg 768w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1-1024x640.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-1.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"ECB policy 1\" width=\"550\" height=\"344\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Policy guidance: April 21 is not the right moment for any new policy action, but following the guidance it gave when it cut rates on 10 March, the ECB is likely to re-emphasise its forward guidance which was strengthened in March (post rate cuts) by repeating that \u201cpolicy rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of [ECB\u2019s] net asset purchases\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Broader economic assessment: The ECB should sound confident enough that its latest measures will continue to feed through to financial markets and the real economy, reducing the risks of second-round effects on inflation. <a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/22\/euro-area-business-surveys-regain-some-momentum-in-march\/\">Business surveys have rebounded<\/a> for March, consistent with resilient growth momentum. Headline inflation was zero in March, but<a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/31\/core-euro-area-inflation-surprises-on-the-upside\/\">core inflation was a touch stronger<\/a> than expected. While calendar effects will likely push core prices down in April, it is worth mentioning that the \u2018super core\u2019 inflation measures the ECB looks at have rebounded to a two-year high. Furthermore, <a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/29\/credit-figures-confirm-our-2016-euro-growth-forecast\/\">bank credit<\/a>, which arguably remains at the core of the ECB\u2019s reflationary strategy, has rebounded. Overall, we retain <a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/14\/euro-area-quantifying-ecbs-stimulus-an-extra-0-3-boost-to-inflation\/\">our constructive assessment<\/a> of the ECB\u2019s global package, including its new Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (<a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/03\/24\/scepticism-over-ecbs-tltro-ii-programme-is-misplaced\/\">TLTRO II<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15180\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-15180\" src=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2-550x344.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2-550x344.jpg 550w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2-768x480.jpg 768w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2-1024x640.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/ECB-policy-2.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"ECB policy 2\" width=\"550\" height=\"344\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>QE and TLTRO implementation: The ECB will hopefully communicate more details about its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) as well as TLTRO II. There could be some short-term disappointment if enough detail is not provided on Thursday, but with the programme set to begin \u201ctowards the end of the second quarter\u201d and the next ECB meeting scheduled on 2 June, there should not be too long to wait.<\/p>\n<p>Italian banks: We would expect ECB President Mario Draghi to make the following observations at the Thursday press conference: 1) the recently established Atlante rescue funds should be viewed as another step in the right direction, complementing previous initiatives such as the establishment of the Italian bad bank (GACS) and reforms to the cooperative bank sector; 2) the macroeconomic context in Italy is different, and hopefully more favourable than it was in Spain in 2010-2012. Crucially, Italian banks\u2019 NPL ratios started to stabilise earlier this year; 3) one should not expect an immediate fix to the issues facing Italy\u2019s banking sector, but rather a gradual improvement over the next couple of years. In Italy itself, bankruptcy reform currently winding its way through parliament could be an important element in solving Italian banks\u2019 NPL problems.<\/p>\n<p>ECB\u2019s independence, Helicopter Money, and other German nightmares: Following unprecedentedly strong criticism from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Sch\u00e4uble directly aimed at Mario Draghi, Bundesbank President Jens <a href=\"https:\/\/next.ft.com\/content\/2b666340-fffc-11e5-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62\">Weidmann responded in the FT<\/a> by defending ECB independence. This should make Draghi\u2019s position easier to defend, in our view. What is not helping (at least in Germany) is the on-going discussion about more radical policy measures, including so-called \u201chelicopter money\u201d. However, even in the most adverse scenario, we still believe that the ECB would consider several other options first, including the purchases of bank loans, bank debt or equities\u2014all highly sensitive measures in themselves.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Source:<a href=\"http:\/\/perspectives.pictet.com\/2016\/04\/18\/ecb-policy-meeting-different-things-to-worry-about\/\" target=\"_blank\">link<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div data-animation=\"no-animation\" data-icons-animation=\"no-animation\" data-overlay=\"\" data-change-size=\"\" data-button-size=\"0.7\" style=\"font-size:0.7em!important;display:none;\" class=\"supsystic-social-sharing supsystic-social-sharing-package-flat supsystic-social-sharing-content supsystic-social-sharing-content-align-left\" data-text=\"\"><a data-networks=\"[]\" class=\"social-sharing-button sharer-flat sharer-flat-1 counter-arrowed facebook\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Facebook\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbestinsurance.gr%2Fa1%2Farchives%2F6246\" data-main-href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u={url}\" data-nid=\"1\" data-name=\"\" data-pid=\"1\" data-post-id=\"6246\" data-url=\"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-mailto=\"\"><i class=\"fa-ssbs fa-ssbs-fw fa-ssbs-facebook\"><\/i><div class=\"counter-wrap arrowed\"><span class=\"counter\">0<\/span><\/div><\/a><a data-networks=\"[]\" class=\"social-sharing-button sharer-flat sharer-flat-1 counter-arrowed twitter\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbestinsurance.gr%2Fa1%2Farchives%2F6246&text=ECB+POLICY+MEETING%3A+DIFFERENT+THINGS+TO+WORRY+ABOUT\" data-main-href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url={url}&text={title}\" data-nid=\"2\" data-name=\"\" data-pid=\"1\" data-post-id=\"6246\" data-url=\"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-mailto=\"\"><i class=\"fa-ssbs fa-ssbs-fw fa-ssbs-twitter\"><\/i><div class=\"counter-wrap arrowed\"><span class=\"counter\">0<\/span><\/div><\/a><\/div><p>ECB POLICY MEETING: DIFFERENT THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT The ECB is facing a complex, albeit not completely negative, macro-financial environment following its impressive policy package announcement on 10 March. Nevertheless, barring some new shock, beyond some fine-tuning measures, the ECB should remain on hold at its next policy meeting on 21 April. Instead, we expect<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6246"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6247,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6246\/revisions\/6247"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bestinsurance.gr\/a1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}