Category: ΝΕΑ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΟΥ

18
Mar

Ποιος ο κίνδυνος από την πρόσφατη απόφαση της Fed για την εγγύηση όλων των καταθέσεων στις ΗΠΑ;

By George Anavaloglou 18/03/2023

Η πρόβλεψη του μέλλοντος είναι δύσκολη, ακόμη και για αυτούς που έχουν τον έλεγχο των πραγμάτων. Ωστόσο, είναι εκπληκτικό πόσο συχνά κάνουν λάθος, ειδικά για πράγματα που πρόκειται να συμβούν.

Για παράδειγμα, το καλοκαίρι του 2021, ο Joe Biden πίστευε ότι οι Ταλιμπάν δεν θα καταλάβαιναν το Αφγανιστάν. Ήταν λάθος. Λίγες εβδομάδες αργότερα, οι Ταλιμπάν ελέγχουν ολόκληρη τη χώρα και ο κόσμος παρακολούθησε με ντροπή την εκκένωση του προσωπικού της Αμερικανικής πρεσβείας από το Καμπούλ.

Σε παρόμοιο ύφος, ο πρόεδρος της Fed είχε πρόσφατα τη δική του στιγμή Αφγανιστάν. Κατέθεσε ενώπιον μιας επιτροπής του Κογκρέσου που εξέταζε αν η Fed προχωρούσε πολύ γρήγορα στην εφαρμογή της νομισματικής πολιτικής της (δηλαδή στην αύξηση των επιτοκίων). Αυτό είναι ένας σοβαρός λόγος ανησυχίας, καθώς οι αυξήσεις των επιτοκίων μπορούν να δημιουργήσουν πολλούς κινδύνους. Για παράδειγμα, οι τιμές των περιουσιακών στοιχείων, ειδικά των ομολόγων, μπορεί να πέσουν δραματικά στην αξία τους.

Αυτός ο κίνδυνος είναι ιδιαίτερα προβληματικός για τις τράπεζες, καθώς τείνουν να επενδύουν τις καταθέσεις των πελατών τους σε ομόλογα.

Παρόλα αυτά, ο πρόεδρος της Fed απέρριψε κάθε κίνδυνο καταθέτοντας ότι δεν είχαν προχωρήσει πολύ στη νομισματική τους πολιτική. Τρεις μόλις ημέρες αργότερα, μια από τις μεγαλύτερες τράπεζες στις ΗΠΑ κατέρρευσε, πολλές τράπεζες αντιμετώπισαν φυγή καταθέσεων και στις αγορές ομολόγων υπήρξε αναταραχή. Ο πρόεδρος της Fed έπρεπε να εγγυηθεί ολόκληρο το αμερικανικό τραπεζικό σύστημα για να αποκαταστήσει την εμπιστοσύνη.

Αυτή η εγγύηση έχει συνέπειες για τους φορολογούμενους. Το FDIC ανακοίνωσε ότι θα εγγυάται ΟΛΕΣ τις καταθέσεις στην τράπεζα Silicon Valley μετά την κατάρρευσή της. Το FDIC χρηματοδοτείται με την επιβολή τελών στα μέλη του δηλ. τις τράπεζες και όχι με τους φόρους. Ωστόσο, η πραγματική διάσωση προέρχεται από τη Fed, όχι από το FDIC.

H Fed δημιούργησε ένα νέο πρόγραμμα στήριξης των τραπεζών που ονομάζεται “Bank Term Funding Program” (BTFP) για να αποτρέψει τις τράπεζες από το να καταρρεύσουν. Το BTFP επιτρέπει στις τράπεζες να χρησιμοποιούν τα ομόλογά τους ως ενέχυρο και να δανείζονται περισσότερα χρήματα από ό,τι αξίζουν τα ομόλογα που έχουν στην κατοχή τους. Αν τα ομόλογα τους αποτιμούνται αυτή τη στιγμή έστα στα 85, αυτές θα δανείζονται από τη Fed 100.

Οι τράπεζες στις ΗΠΑ έχουν περισσότερα από 600 δισεκατομμύρια δολάρια σε μη πραγμοτοποιηθέντες απώλειες ομολόγων αυτήν τη στιγμή. Αυτό σημαίνει ότι η Fed έχει εγγυηθεί ολόκληρα τα 600+ δισεκατομμύρια δολάρια. Οι εμπορικές τράπεζες δεν θα χάσουν ούτε ένα σεντ, καθώς μπορούν τώρα να περάσουν τους χρηματοπιστωτικούς κινδύνους στη Fed.

Αυτό δε λέγεται διάσωση. Είναι μια ωρολογιακή βόμβα. Ελπίζουμε να μην εκραγεί ποτέ. Αν συμβεί κάτι τέτοιο, η Fed θα πρέπει να αντιμετωπίσει εκατοντάδες δισεκατομμύρια σε απώλειες, προκαλώντας καταστροφικές συνέπειες για το δολάριο των ΗΠΑ. Αυτό σημαίνει ότι κάθε άνδρας, γυναίκα και παιδί στις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες θα πρέπει να αντιμετωπίσει τις πιθανές συνέπειες του προγράμματος BTFP.

Αυτό που είναι ανησυχητικό είναι ότι η Fed πήρε αυτήν την απόφαση μόνο της. Η Βουλή των Αντιπροσώπων δεν πέρασε νόμο ούτε διενήργησε ακροάσεις. Η Fed βρίσκεται υπό κριτική για την πρόσφατη απόφασή της να εγγυηθεί πάνω από 600 δισεκατομμύρια δολάρια σε απώλειες τραπεζών χωρίς καμία συμμετοχή του Κογκρέσου. Αυτή η απόφαση έχει βάλει κάθε Αμερικανό πολίτη υποψήφιο στο να πληρώσει τον τελικό λογαριασμό.

Η Fed κάνει συνεχώς τραγικές προβλέψεις τα τελευταία χρόνια, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της πρόσφατης διαχείρισης των αυξήσεων των επιτοκίων και των κινδύνων που συνεπάγονται. Παρά την έλλειψη ειδικής γνώσης, η Fed αποφάσισε να εγγραφεί μονομερώς στο αμερικανικό λαό για μια πιθανή διάσωση χωρίς δημοκρατικό έλεγχο. Αυτό αναδεικνύει ένα μεγαλύτερο ζήτημα για την τρέχουσα κατάσταση της δημοκρατίας στην Αμερική.

27
Jan

Τι πρέπει να προσέχουμε όταν οδηγούμε στη βροχή

Η οδήγηση στη βροχή μπορεί να είναι μια δύσκολη κατάσταση, αλλά με τις σωστές προφυλάξεις και γνώσεις, μπορεί να είναι μια ασφαλής και ευχάριστη εμπειρία. Ακολουθούν μερικές συμβουλές για οδήγηση στη βροχή:

1. Επιβραδύνετε: Το πιο σημαντικό πράγμα που πρέπει να θυμάστε όταν οδηγείτε στη βροχή είναι να επιβραδύνετε. Οι βρεγμένοι δρόμοι μπορεί να είναι ολισθηροί και να μειώνουν την πρόσφυση του αυτοκινήτου σας, επομένως είναι σημαντικό να μειώσετε την ταχύτητά σας για να δώσετε στον εαυτό σας περισσότερο χρόνο για να αντιδράσει σε τυχόν πιθανούς κινδύνους.

2. Αυξήστε την απόσταση που ακολουθεί: Είναι σημαντικό να αυξήσετε την απόσταση που ακολουθείτε όταν οδηγείτε στη βροχή. Αυτό θα σας δώσει περισσότερο χρόνο για να αντιδράσετε σε τυχόν ξαφνικές στάσεις ή αλλαγές στην ταχύτητα.

3. Ανάψτε τους προβολείς σας: Το άναμμα των προβολέων σας θα σας βοηθήσει να βλέπετε καλύτερα στη βροχή και θα διευκολύνει επίσης τους άλλους οδηγούς να σας βλέπουν.

4. Αποφύγετε τις λακκούβες: Οι λακκούβες μπορεί να παραπλανήσουν και να κρύψουν βαθιές λακκούβες ή άλλους κινδύνους. Εάν πρέπει να οδηγήσετε μέσα από μια λακκούβα, κάντε το αργά και προσεκτικά.

5. Χρησιμοποιήστε τους υαλοκαθαριστήρες σας: Βεβαιωθείτε ότι οι υαλοκαθαριστήρες σας είναι σε καλή κατάσταση και χρησιμοποιήστε τους για να διατηρήσετε το παρμπρίζ σας καθαρό.

6. Αποφύγετε τις ξαφνικές κινήσεις: Οι ξαφνικές κινήσεις όπως η απότομη επιτάχυνση, το φρενάρισμα ή η στροφή μπορεί να προκαλέσουν το αυτοκίνητό σας ολίσθηση ή υδροπλάνο.

7. Να είστε ενήμεροι για τους άλλους οδηγούς: Να είστε ενήμεροι για τους άλλους οδηγούς και τις ενέργειές τους. Εάν κάποιος οδηγεί ακανόνιστα, δώστε του άφθονο χώρο και να είστε έτοιμοι να προβείτε σε ενέργειες αποφυγής εάν είναι απαραίτητο.

Ακολουθώντας αυτές τις συμβουλές, μπορείτε να βεβαιωθείτε ότι παραμένετε ασφαλείς ενώ οδηγείτε στη βροχή. Θυμηθείτε να αφιερώσετε το χρόνο σας και να γνωρίζετε το περιβάλλον σας. Με τις σωστές προφυλάξεις, η οδήγηση στη βροχή μπορεί να είναι μια ασφαλής και ευχάριστη εμπειρία.

23
Jun

ECB Still Hasn’t Activated First Line of Defense in Bond Market

(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank still hasn’t activated the bond-purchasing firepower signed off by policy makers more than a week ago as their first line of defense in a crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. 
Some officials worry that until the decision to “apply flexibility” to reinvestments from its pandemic emergency program becomes operational, debt markets remain vulnerable to investor speculation that could then spiral out of control, the people said. They declined to be identified because such discussions are private. The availability of pandemic reinvestments has been touted as an initial crisis-fighting tool since December last year, though the ECB didn’t choose to resort to that option until an emergency meeting on June 15. Another scheduled Governing Council gathering took place on Wednesday. 

An ECB spokesperson declined to comment on preparations to make the measure operational.

While President Christine Lagarde assured European lawmakers earlier this week of progress on implemention, she gave no commitment on when it would be completed, saying only that “we will do that, and the technicalities and the ways in which this shall be conducted is actually being worked on as well at the moment.”

The use of reinvestments is intended as an immediate solution while the ECB develops a more potent crisis instrument, commonly referred to by officials as an anti-fragmentation tool. Policy makers aim to have that ready by the July 21 meeting, though they say it could be deployed sooner if required.

Italian bonds pared gains, sending the 10-year yield premium over its German peer seven basis points higher to 198 basis points, the highest since Friday.

July 1

The ECB is committed to reinvesting maturing securities from its bond portfolios, but the tempo of its intervention in the market is already scheduled to slow on July 1, when conventional quantitative easing will end.   

Conceivably, using reinvestments of the pandemic tool could already offer a powerful support to individual countries, especially if the ECB can waive its usual constraint that bond-buying should reflect the size of each economy.  

About 17 billion euros ($17.9 billion) of bonds expire each month and about 12 billion euros of that comes from core countries and could be redirected to struggling markets, people familiar with their plans have said. 

The emergency meeting last week committed the ECB to using that measure and to developing a crisis tool to protect the integrity of the euro. Officials convened after market tensions pushed Italian bonds above 4% for the first time in 2014, a time when the region was embroiled in sovereign debt turmoil.

In her testimony to the European Parliament on Monday, Lagarde referred to some possible areas of study in developing its anti-crisis measures, while also declining to comment further. 

“I know that it is going to be terribly tempting by many of you and all the best ones in this room to actually ask me, what kind of band, what kind of spread, what kind of speed, what kind of measurements, what kind of criterias, what kind of framework will eventually be decided, and I will not, I simply will not” respond, she said. 

27
Feb

U.S., EU Cut Some Russian Banks From SWIFT, Target Central Bank

By Saleha Mohsin, Annmarie Hordern and Alberto Nardelli

(Bloomberg) — Western nations agreed to unleash new sanctions to further isolate Russia’s economy and financial system after initial penalties failed to persuade President Vladimir Putin to pull out of Ukraine.

A decision by Western nations to exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, used for trillions of dollars worth of transactions between banks around the world, was announced in a joint statement Saturday.

The move is aimed at Russian banks that have already been sanctioned by the international community, but can be expanded to other Russian banks if necessary, according to a spokesman for the German government.

In addition, the nations said they would act together to impose “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”

More penalties against the bank could come this weekend, according to a U.S. official. Russia has about $640 billion in reserves.

As the conflict in Ukraine grinds on, a consensus has emerged to prevent Russia from using the plumbing of the modern financial system and isolate it as a pariah similar to Iran, Venezuela and North Korea.

“The speed and unity to take this unprecedented financial action will give Putin pause,” said Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council. “The SWIFT move was largely expected but striking at the Central Bank will reverberate in Moscow and beyond.”

The Western move “won’t send the entire Russian economy into immediate shock. But it removed all the potential to backstop the large commercial banks,” he added.

Authorities haven’t determined the full list of banks that will be hit by the SWIFT sanctions. But a U.S. official briefing reporters on condition of anonymity said that they will be carefully chosen to maximize the impact on Russia and minimize the impact on EU nations.

It’s not clear how severe an impact the moves will have on Russia, or whether they really will do much to help Ukraine in the coming days. President Joe Biden said it would take weeks or longer for the pain for sanctions to be felt, but Saturday’s move suggested Western nations wanted to accelerate that process.

“Sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the Russian economy and its banking system, similar to what we saw in 1991,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist for the Institute of International Finance, said before the latest round of penalties was announced. “This would likely lead to massive bank runs and dollarization, with a sharp sell-off, drain on reserves — and, possibly, a full-on collapse of Russia’s financial system.”

All Russian banks that have already been sanctioned by the international community are going to be restricted from SWIFT. That list can be expanded if needed, officials said.

“Sanctioning the central bank of Russia is the kind of draconian sanctions we’ve employed on Iran,” Representative French Hill, an Arkansas Republican, said on Twitter ahead of the joint action. “I don’t see why waiting bears any strategy. Putin’s taken this catastrophic action. He needs to pay the maximum price now.”

The Biden administration has already sanctioned five Russian banks, including Sberbank and VTB Group, which collectively account for about half of the country’s banking assets. Russia had over 360 licensed banks at the start of the year.
Bill Ackman

@BillAckman

I wouldn’t want to keep money in a bank that can’t access the SWIFT system. Once a bank can’t transfer or receive funds from other banks, its solvency can be at risk. If I were Russian, I would take my money out now. Bank runs could begin in Russia on Monday. #StandWithUkraine

While Russia has been steadily reducing its reliance on foreign currency, the central bank still had 16.4% of its holdings in dollars at the end of June 2021, according to the latest official data, down from 22.2% a year earlier. The euro’s share was up at 32.2%.

By targeting the central bank, the West could complicate the enactment of monetary policy while removing a potential source of cash for the government.

Losing access to funds abroad would handcuff Russia’s central bank as it tries to shore up the ruble in the foreign-exchange market by selling hard currency. The direct interventions, announced this week after Putin ordered his military to attack Ukraine, mark the first time the Bank of Russia waded into the market since 2014.

Iran, Venezuela
Although the decision would be without precedent for an economy the size of Russia’s, the U.S. has previously sanctioned the central banks of adversaries. In 2019, the Treasury Department blacklisted the monetary authorities of Iran and Venezuela for funneling money that supported destabilizing activities in the respective regions. North Korea’s central bank is also blacklisted.

The Bank of Russia kept 22% of its hoard in gold, most of which is held domestically and would be out of reach of Western sanctions, while about 13% of the central bank’s holdings were in yuan.

Russia still has about $300 billion of foreign currency held offshore — enough to disrupt money markets if it’s frozen by sanctions or moved suddenly to avoid them, according to Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar.

In a report this week that parsed data from the central bank and financial markets, Pozsar calculated that a much larger share is held in dollars than official numbers suggest. The Bank of Russia’s dollar exposure is about 50%, Credit Suisse estimates.

Any unreported reserves would be far harder to track and target with sanctions, though it does raise the potential for the U.S. and others to target more accounts — if they can identify where that money is. Pozsar said in his note that the offshore currency holdings he outlined could be vulnerable to sanctions, or to being moved out of their potential reach, potentially fueling further de-dollarization.

Sanctioning the central bank could also affect the country’s ability to facilitate trade and hinder its ability to promote international investments.
In the case of Iran, by the time the Trump administration targeted the country’s central bank in 2019, there was little left of the Islamic Republic’s economy that hadn’t been penalized, with the U.S. already enacting substantial sanctions on its banking industry.

It increased the chilling affect of sanctions on doing business with Iran even further, prevented the the central bank from accessing its special drawing rights under the International Monetary Fund, and also harmed its ability to carry out humanitarian trade including foods and medicines.

Russia may also not necessarily be able to count on Chinese financial institutions to help cushion the blow from the Western sanctions. At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

Other financial sanctions that could still be on the table include a ban for western public pension funds to invest in Russian assets and excluding the country from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond Index or the equivalent MSCI Inc. benchmarks, according to Bluebay’s Ash.

Full blocking sanctions against some Russian banks should already choke off their ability to conduct dollar payments with U.S. counterparts even if they retain access to the global messaging service.

Banks can also resort to alternative systems and even communicate via email to send payment instructions, Julia Friedlander, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said before the announcement.

Still, “it’s like a kick in the shins,” she said. “Transactions with Russia would be slower and more expensive. A sudden cut-off will also hold a lot of current assets in limbo, for corporations and banks.”

10
Feb

More ECB Officials Distrust Inflation Forecast Amid Hawkish Turn

  • Unexpectedly high data outcomes are unsettling policy makers
  • Chief economist defends staff modeling, projection process
By Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber

(Bloomberg) — A growing number of European Central Bank policy makers are losing faith in the institution’s current inflation forecasting, emboldening their shift toward hiking interest rates later this year, according to officials with knowledge of the matter. 

While Chief Economist Philip Lane robustly defends the ECB’s projections and insists his staff’s modeling is reliable and state-of-the-art, several governors are cautioning against depending too much on them in a quickly changing, uncertain environment where the recent run of price increases has persistently confounded expectations. 

Such doubts on the forecasting process emerged in multiple conversations with officials on the discussions behind last week’s surprisingly hawkish shift unveiled by President Christine Lagarde. They spoke on condition of anonymity because ECB deliberations are private. 

The euro extended gains, trading up 0.3% at around $1.1445. Bund futures trimmed an advance in thin trading after the European session.

Lagarde’s pivot, taken against the backdrop of intensifying global tightening, has set the scene for a more hawkish decision in March, when policy makers may consider how quickly to stop bond purchases. 

New forecasts will take prominence at that meeting, with the ECB’s last set of projections from Dec. 16 obsolete after another surge in energy and two record inflation readings since then, including a 5.1% reading in January. The last outlook was for an overall average of 3.2% of this year. 

Lagarde said Monday those forecasts will help the Governing Council to “better appraise the implications” of current inflation readings on the medium-term outlook.

A foretaste of the size of the likely upgrade for the path of consumer prices may emerge on Thursday as the European Commission issues new projections. Draft forecasts seen by Bloomberg show consumer prices will advance by an average 1.7% in 2023 after surging 3.5% in 2022.

As chief economist, Lane is the Executive Board member responsible for the preparation and presentation of the ECB’s forecasts. His role also entails proposing any course of action at Governing Council decisions. 

Doubts on the ECB’s modeling capabilities form one line of attack on his relatively dovish view that policy makers shouldn’t flinch on inflation that isn’t about to spiral out of control, officials say, observing that his position is gaining less and less traction among colleagues. 

Instead, officials cite growing concern among Governing Council members, well beyond the typical hawks such as the Germans and the Dutch, that prices won’t undershoot the 2% target next year predicted in existing staff forecasts, and that such projections might prove an unreliable tool in a rapidly changing environment. 

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“Our base case is that the ECB signals a hike will come at year end, perhaps reinforced by plans to taper asset purchases a little faster. There’s a danger, albeit a small one, that doves on the Council cave into pressure from the hawks after taking stock of the inflation numbers and how financial markets have priced in aggressive hiking cycles in the U.S. and the U.K.”

–Jamie Rush and Maeva Cousin. For the full report, click here

Lane has insisted that it takes a model to beat a model, a hint that any critics aren’t offering constructive alternatives. He does also acknowledge an evolving economic landscape where unemployment is falling faster than anticipated and inflation expectations are stabilizing. 

The Harvard-educated chief economist, seen by many observers as a torch-bearer of continuity for the stimulus-focused policy of former ECB President Mario Draghi, still reckons the ECB needs more time to form a policy judgment, with a potential conflict in Ukraine and its impact on energy among factors to watch. 

His own policy prescription, rather than the aggressive interest-rate increases now predicted for later this year by economists at banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and also anticipated by investors, would favor more gradual “normalization.” 

That’s a view that Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos shared on Wednesday, while Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau on Tuesday said financial markets may have overreacted to Lagarde’s pivot, a suggestion that they have priced in too much tightening. 

Others appear more sanguine about investor views. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told Zeit that a rate increase is possible this year, while Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot sees a 25 basis-point move as soon as the fourth quarter.  

Lagarde herself talked of a “gradual” adjustment on Monday. Regarding the forecasts, she insisted last week that she has “full confidence” in staff making “sensible, reasonable, rational assumptions.” At the same time, she stressed that policy makers aren’t tied to projections and that “there is an element of discretionary judgment” in their decisions.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel echoed Lagarde’s view in a post during a Twitter discussion on Wednesday. 

In a reaction to the concerns of Governing Council members about the forecasting process reported in this story, the ECB provided a statement via a spokesperson. 

“The ECB’s/Eurosystem’s macroeconomic projections are conducted and owned by the ECB and by the Eurosystem staff. These provide a key input into Governing Council meetings, where decision-makers assess the outlook for the economy and inflation and formulate their own views on the risks to outcomes for inflation and growth. As any forecast, they are both model-dependent and sensitive to the incoming data. The Governing Council will receive fresh staff projections at the 10th March meeting, which will include all information which will have become available after the December meeting.”

–With assistance from James Hirai, Greg Ritchie and Jorge Valero.

 

1
Feb

Traders Dare BOE, ECB With Rate-Hike Bets Ahead of Key Decisions

  • Money markets see 125bps of hikes by BOE, 25bps by ECB in 2022
  • Leads to renewed bond selloff, puts pressure on policy makers
By Libby Cherry and James Hirai

(Bloomberg) — European markets are awash with hawkish enthusiasm, as traders bet on the fastest pace of policy tightening in more than a decade from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank ahead of their rate decisions on Thursday. 

Money markets are wagering on the BOE raising rates five times by 25 basis points and a move of that magnitude from the ECB by December. That spurred a renewed selloff in bonds across the continent, and challenges ECB policy makers including President Christine Lagarde who have pushed back against the idea of raising borrowing costs this year. 

Markets are assuming sentiment at the BOE and the ECB could have evolved following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift. Policy makers will have a tricky time to balance the need to cool inflation running at the hottest in decades, while not hurting economies recovering from the pandemic or provoking market volatility.

“The ECB had a narrative that the peak inflation print was December and inflation would cool over the course of the year,” said Rohan Khanna, a rates strategist at UBS Group AG. “While this may still prove true, today’s upside surprise to German inflation and hence upside surprise to tomorrow’s euro-zone HICP print imply that the ECB would also have to revise their forecasts upwards.”

Two-year and five-year German yields — the most sensitive to interest-rate rises — saw their biggest jumps since March 2020 on Monday, while the benchmark 10-year yield broke into positive territory for the second time this month. That presages an end to an era of negative rates, with the ECB having last hiked in 2011.

For the BOE, which kicked off its hiking cycle in December, traders are focusing on the pace of rate rises going forward. Money markets have priced in as many as five full hikes to take the key interest rate to 1.5% by year-end.

Traders haven’t priced in such an aggressive timeline of hikes since at least 2008. There’s also a widening split between the market and economists, who see the BOE’s key rate only reaching 0.75% in December. 

While inflation is at the highest in 30 years, a fast rise in borrowing costs would hurt U.K. households facing an increase to taxes and energy bills from April. The cost of living is adding to pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson, already fighting for his survival after a report into rule-breaking parties by his officials during lockdown.

Bond investors aren’t hanging around, dumping gilts to send the U.K.’s two-year yields above 1% for the first time since 2011. A Bank rate at that level would be especially significant for markets, as the point at which policy makers said they would consider the active sale of gilts — an unprecedented step for the central bank.

“We don’t expect the BOE to tighten as quickly as the Fed,” said Peder Beck-Friis, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., seeing greater inflationary risks in the U.S. “That said, if the Fed speeds up its hiking pace we would expect the BOE to up its pace too.”

 

14
Jan

France’s Power Price Cap Will Cost EDF up to $9.6 Billion 

(Bloomberg) — The French government will ask Electricite de France SA to sell more power at a deep discount to protect households from surging wholesale electricity prices, a measure that will cost the state-controlled utility as much as 8.4 billion euros ($9.6 billion).

The unprecedented move, announced by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire in an interview with Le Parisien published Thursday, is the latest decision by President Emmanuel Macron to tackle inflation and gain support of voters ahead of April’s presidential election as an energy crisis threatens to create havoc across Europe.

In a separate development, EDF said late Thursday that several of its nuclear power plants in France would be down longer than expected for repairs, prompting the company to slash its output forecast from reactors by 8%. The move threatens to drive up power prices as Europe is already facing a historic energy crisis.  

Also See: EDF Trims Nuclear Power-Output Forecast 8%, Citing Repairs   

The increase in electricity bills for households and very small businesses will be capped at 4% this year, when including 8 billion euros of tax cuts on electricity consumption, the minister said. Without the moves, prices would rise by 35% from Feb. 1.

Rivals of Paris-based EDF, which are already entitled by law to buy 100 terawatt-hours of the energy giant’s annual power output at a steep discount to current market prices, will be given the opportunity to buy another 20 terawatt-hours on the cheap, Le Maire told the newspaper. That will cost EDF between 7.7 billion euros and 8.4 billion euros, depending on market prices, the minister said.

The financial consequences for EDF Group can’t be precisely determined at this stage, and will depend on the market prices over the implementation period, the energy giant said in a Thursday statement.

‘Appropriate Measures’

EDF said it “will consider appropriate measures to strengthen its balance sheet structure and any measure to protect its interests.” The company withdrew its guidance for 2022 indebtedness, and said it will communicate again by Feb. 18 at the latest when it releases annual results.

The government decision means EDF, which tends to sell its power in advance, will have to buy back power at high prices to sell it back at discount to rivals. It’s even more costly, because an unusually high number of its nuclear reactors are halted for long maintenance or repairs. In its statement Thursday, EDF said it was cutting its 2022 forecast for French nuclear output by 30 terawatt-hours to between 300 and 330 terawatt-hours.

EDF will sell 20 terawatt-hours of electricity at 46.2 euros per megawatt-hour to rivals this year, on top of the 100 terawatt-hours it’s selling at 42 euros, according to details disclosed by the government after Le Maire’s interview.

That compares with a day-ahead price of French baseload power that closed at 228 euros per megawatt-hour in Paris Thursday.

France’s plan needs to be approved by the European Commission, since it may impact competition within the European Union. Le Maire told the newspaper he has an agreement on the measure with Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition commissioner.

To achieve the 4% cap — a pledge made three months ago when market prices much were lower — the government will also postpone a portion of the 2022 tariff increase over a 12-month period starting February next year, EDF said.

2
Jan

Europe Seeks Green Label for Certain Gas and Nuclear Projects

  • European Commission is designing sustainable investment rules
  • Draft EU taxonomy proposal sparks criticism from the Greens 

By Ewa Krukowska

(Bloomberg) — The European Union is planning to allow some natural-gas and nuclear energy projects to be classified as sustainable investments in a proposal that sparked immediate criticism from the Greens. 

The European Commission wants to give a temporary green label to gas projects that replace coal and emit no more than 270 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour, according to a draft regulation seen by Bloomberg News. Such plants would have to obtain construction permits before the end of 2030, and have plans to switch to renewable or low-carbon gases by the end of 2035.

Nuclear energy could be classified as sustainable as long as new plants that are granted construction permits by 2045 meet a set of criteria to avoid significant harm to the environment and water resources, according to the draft, sent on Friday to EU national governments for review. 

“The Commission considers there is a role for natural gas and nuclear as a means to facilitate the transition towards a predominantly renewable-based future,” the EU executive arm said in a statement on Saturday.

The design of the EU investment classification system, known as taxonomy, is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition. The challenge is to ensure the decision on nuclear and gas gets political support, while avoiding the risk of greenwashing, or overstating the significance of emissions cuts.

Europe wants to reach carbon neutrality by the middle of the century under the Green Deal, a sweeping overhaul that aims to accelerate pollution cuts in all areas, from energy production to transport.

Yet for some lawmakers, investors and activists, classifying gas or nuclear projects as green would harm the entire sustainable investment rulebook.  

“Including nuclear power and gas in the EU taxonomy is like labeling a caged egg as organic,” said Michael Bloss, a German member of the Green group in the European Parliament. “Instead of channeling money into investments in the solar and wind industries, old and extremely expensive business models can now be continued under false guise.”

The taxonomy aims to guide investors to clean projects. The decision on whether it should include gas and nuclear power was delayed in April following criticism that such an addition could undermine the credibility of the system.

Giving a temporary green label to certain gas projects gas projects could facilitate investments in cleaning up coal-based heating systems in countries such as Poland. That’s an argument often raised by East European politicians.  

The inclusion of some nuclear energy projects would help attract private finance in nations from France to the Czech Republic, which plan to rely on atomic power in their transition to net-zero emissions.

The Commission is also planning to ensure a high degree of transparency to investors concerning gas and nuclear energy, introducing specific disclosure requirements for non-financial and financial undertakings. 

Member states and the Platform on Sustainable Finance have until Jan. 12 to provide feedback. The Commissions will then adopt the delegated act later this month. In the next step, it will be sent to EU nations and the European Parliament for scrutiny.

9
Nov

H Tesla σημειώνει τη μεγαλύτερη πτώση από τον περασμένο Μάρτιο μετά τα σχόλια του Michael Burry

(Bloomberg) — Οι μετοχές της Tesla υποχωρούν έως και 11% την Τρίτη μετά τα σχόλια στο Twitter του πασίγνωστου Μάικλ Μπέρι από την ταινία “The Big Short” , ότι ο Elon Musk μπορεί να θέλει να πουλήσει κάποια μετοχές της Tesla για να καλύψει τα προσωπικά του χρέη.

 

  • Η TΕSLA έκλεισε -4,8% τη Δευτέρα, αφότου ο Musk διεξήγαγε μια δημοσκόπηση στο Twitter το Σαββατοκύριακο σχετικά με το αν έπρεπε να πουλήσει το 10% της εταιρείας

 

  • Ο Burry έκανε επίσης μια σύγκριση μεταξύ του τρέχοντος χρηματιστηρίου και της ολλανδικής φούσκας της τουλίπας

 

  • Νωρίτερα, Ο αδελφός του Μασκ, Κίμπαλ πούλησε 88.500 μετοχές στις 5 Νοεμβρίου, πριν από τη δημοσκόπηση στο Twitter
1
Nov

Ex-Barclays Trader Banned for Life After Euribor Conviction

(Bloomberg) — A former Barclays Plc trader convicted of helping rig a key benchmark rate was banned from working in the finance industry for life.

Colin Bermingham, who was sentenced to five years in prison in 2019, was not “fit and proper” to take on any regulated role, the Financial Conduct Authoritysaid. The ruling comes after the former trader lost an attempt to overturn his guilty finding last year.

“His conviction demonstrates clear and serious dishonesty and a lack of integrity,” the FCA said in a statement Monday.

Bermingham agreed to resolve the matter with the lifetime ban, the FCA said. A  lawyer who previously represented Bermingham at trial didn’t immediately return a message seeking comment.

The 2019 convictions of Bermingham and another trader Carlo Palombo were part of the U.K. Serious Fraud Office’s probe into efforts to manipulate the Euro interbank offered rate, which is related to trillions of dollars worth of loans and derivatives.

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