November 2018

27
Nov

Italian & Greek Banks Burdened With Bad Loans May Get Lift From Brussels

Banks from Greece to Italy that are struggling to get rid of a mountain of bad loans may soon get some help from European Union lawmakers.

A bill that’s nearing the finish line in Brussels would soften the capital hit banks usually face when they sell non-performing loans at a loss. That could give a boost to Italian lenders, which are sitting on the EU’s biggest pile of soured debt — 174 billion euros($196 billion) — that’s often difficult to unload.

“This should make it easier for banks to clean up their balance sheets from bad assets without unduly impairing their lending capacity,” according to a Nov. 27 document seen by Bloomberg. The document lays out out a proposed compromise on the legislation reached by officials from the European Parliament and the Austrian government, which is leading work on the bill on behalf of the EU’s 28 member states.

The proposal is the latest sign that EU policy makers are easing new capital and liquidity rules in response to pleas from the bloc’s banks, which are struggling to boost profits after a long period of low interest rates and stiff competition from foreign rivals. The new treatment of “massive disposals” of bad loans is part of a broad overhaul of EU banking laws that has been grinding along for two years.

Asset Risk

Under current rules, a bank must adjust the statistical models it uses to measure asset risk when it sells a chunk of bad loans at a steeper loss than foreseen by the models. Those adjustments can leave a bank needing more capital. The new rule would give banks options to prevent such knock-on effects when they sell large soured-debt portfolios at a loss.

The new measure would apply to sales after Nov. 23, 2016, and would expire three years after the rules come into force, according to the document. To qualify, a bank would have to sell more than 20 percent of its soured debt under the plan.

EU finance ministers still have to sign off on the package, and will discuss it when they next meet on Dec. 4. A spokesman for Austria’s presidency of the Council of the European Union declined to comment.

Opponents of the new rule include Daniele Nouy, the outgoing head of the ECB’s bank supervision arm, who has argued that it would “kill the credibility” of European lenders’ risk models compared to their peers in other regions of the world.

27
Nov

Clock Is Ticking for Greece, Its Banks and Whole Banking System

1. Clock Is Ticking for Greece, Its Banks and Whole Banking System

Table of Contents
Key Research
  • Bad Bank Credibility an Issue NEW
  • Regulatory Intervention Coming
  • A Who’s Who of Greek Banks
  • Revenue Headwinds
  • Economic Challenges Loom

(Bloomberg Intelligence) — A Greek “bad bank” is vital, we believe, to avoid first the implosion of Piraeus, and then the wider Greek bank system. The details provided by the Central Bank of Greece appear as sensible as could be expected, but continue to stumble at the same hurdles, namely low tangible CET1 and lack of external capital commitment. All the while, the pressing need for the SSM to agree on new and credible targets for 2019-21 NPE reduction and transitional CET1 capital targets means time is running out. (11/27/18)

Greek Bad-Bank Proposal Does What It Can; Key Questions RemainReturn to Top

Contributing Analysts Marta Bastoni (Banks)

The Bank of Greece’s bad-bank plan is bold, seeks to address some of the dilution risk from existing deferred-tax credits, but leaves critical questions unanswered. Underlying levels of capital will still look scant, and identifying investors for the many billions of euros of senior and mezzanine notes to fund special purpose vehicle purchases is chief among concerns. (11/27/18)

2. Wanted: Senior and Mezzanine Investors to Avoid a Greek TragedyReturn to Top

Greek Bad Bank Proposal:
  • Transfer significant part of NPEs and part of deferred tax credits to SPV
  • Loans transferred at net (of loan loss provisions) book value
  • Amount of DTCs match additional loss to bring loan valuations to market values
  • Introduce legislation to transform DTCs into irrevocable claim by SPV on Greek State
  • SPV finances transfer with three-class securitization: senior, mezzanine, junior/equity
  • Four banks (maximum of 20% each) and Greek State subscribe to lower class of notes (enabling State and banks to claim any excess value)

The Bank of Greece’s Nov. 22 plan notes that nonperforming exposures (NPEs) will remain high at Greek banks “primarily due to the absence of credit expansion as well as deleveraging of bank balance sheets.” To be able to announce new single-digit NPE ratios for 2021 (like Eurobank, with its plan on Nov. 26) that are agreed with the SSM and achievable, at least 40 billion euros, or 47% of existing NPEs, must be transferred.

Capital ratios will also have to remain in the low-to-mid teens to avoid further share-price weakness, as the ability to raise equity capital remains all but impossible. The sourcing of investors for the senior and mezzanine tranches of the SPV continues to be our main concern, along with the viability of the project. (11/27/18)

3. DTC Conversion Is Needed to Avoid Huge DilutionReturn to Top

Central Bank Statement
“A possible conversion of a sufficient portion of these credits into shares would cause a drastic reduction in the participation of private shareholders (dilution) and the acquisition of an overwhelming majority of equity by the State. Under this scenario, the aforementioned chain of events would most likely be of no value to the Greek State. Losses reduce regulatory capital as well as relevant capital adequacy ratios, thereby resulting in a breach of minimum capital adequacy thresholds.”
Bank of Greece
Quote located on page 2, click to view the full report

Skepticism at the proposed use of Greek banks’ deferred tax credits (DTCs) within a new special purpose vehicle (SPV) is understandable, but the huge dilution to existing shareholders automatically triggered by the DTCs in a clean-up must be avoided. Currently, any lender that records losses in an accounting year must boost its share capital in favor of the state (by 29% of the loss amount, reflecting the current tax rate), increasing the government’s stake and diluting existing shareholders.

New legislation will then convert the DTCs transferred — likely about 7.5 billion euros in total — into an irrevocable claim of the SPV on the Greek State with a predetermined repayment schedule. This will obviate the dilution risk from losses triggered by the transfer, write-off or impairment of loans in arrears per Law 4465/2017. (11/27/18)

4. Greek Banks’ $18 Billion of DTC Will Form Bad Bank BackboneReturn to Top

DTCs and Clean, Core Fully Loaded CET1

Some skepticism surrounding the structure, funding and capacity of the proposed bad bank in Greece remains even after details were presented on Nov. 22. A key concern remains where the buyers for senior and mezzanine notes issued by the special purpose vehicle will be sourced, with Italy, Ireland and Spain also working through legacy issues and absorbing investor capacity. As the graphic shows, deferred tax assets are a core part of transitional capital for the banks. With no likelihood of equity capital raises, any solution must avoid depleting banks’ already scant core capital bases.

The Bank of Greece’s new plan is considerably more complicated and larger in scope than that of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, which is based on the Italian model and could relieve the banks of up to 15 billion euros of NPEs. (11/27/18)

5. Plan’s CET1 Hit Remains a ConcernReturn to Top

Piraeus bank remains the poster child for bad debt cleanup, with 28.5 billion euros of nonperforming exposures at 1H dwarfing less than 5 billion euros of fully-phased in CET1 capital (6.6 billion euros transitional). The approach taken to CET1 calculation, whether transitional — which the regulator will consider — or fully-loaded, which is a default for many investors, makes a significant difference. The bad bank’s estimated impact on CET1 levels is 3 percentage points, on average, a further source of concern for its viability.

For Eurobank, the impact of transition to IFRS9 represented 250 bps of CET1 at 1H, effectively the difference between an 11.9% fully loaded ratio and 14.4% transitional. For Piraeus, the impact was increased 25% to 2 billion euros at 1H, highlighting the enormous sensitivity to accounting approach. (11/27/18)

6. Aggressive SSM Means 2021 Targets Will Be ToughReturn to Top

The rate of increase in restructurings and foreclosures, combined with a fall in non-performing exposure inflows, are together critical drivers of how quickly Greek banks’ bad-debt problems are addressed. Should third-party appetite for portfolio sales and securitizations dry up, the SSM will expect banks to absorb higher losses and writedowns, testing the resilience of already-limited cash coverage and fully loaded common equity tier-1 bases.

National Bank of Greece said on its 2Q call that it understood that the target set by the SSM for 2021 would be “aggressive” and as such, inorganic measures would be critical. The ability of banks to absorb further provisions to write off unprovisioned portions of NPEs also explains the need for a greater cost focus, to bolster their pre-provision operating-profit cushions. (09/10/18)

7. Italian Banks Are Competition For Bad Debt Investors’ DollarsReturn to Top

Cash coverage levels for the Greek banks ranged from 49% (Piraeus) to 60% (NBG) at 1H, with both Alpha and Eurobank within the low end of this range. This is in-line with Italy’s more beleaguered banks Banco BPM (51%), Carige (50%), Monte Paschi (56%) and CredEm (50%) which themselves are vying for investors to help offload their bad debt burdens. Curing of these NPEs will continue to be driven by corporate and SME segments, we believe, while the impact of the growing number of auctions on consumer behavior could accelerate organic outflows of NPEs.

Business loans represent two-thirds of Piraeus’ NPEs, with mortgages a little more than 20%. For Eurobank, mortgages (one-third) exceed corporate (30%) NPEs. Mortgages are larger (almost 50%) than SME and corporate combined for National Bank of Greece. (11/14/18)

Regulatory Intervention Coming

Greek Banks Will Test Mettle of ECB, Markets Before 2018 Is OutReturn to Top

The Single Supervisory Mechanism is between a rock and a hard place as it starts discussions with Greece’s banks over new medium-term plans, NPE and CET1 targets. The country’s four main banks, whose rehab is far from over, have total nonperforming exposure of $100 billion vs. a total market cap of about $7 billion and coverage levels similar to Italy’s weakest lenders. (09/28/18)

8. Greek Banks Have to Deal With More Than One Elephant in the RoomReturn to Top

The elephants in the room that are deterring confidence in Greek banks remain centered on vast non-performing exposures (NPEs), the purchase of foreclosed property at auctions, and growing periphery fears. The four largest Greek banks had aggregate group NPEs of nearly 94 billion euros as of 2Q, more than 90% of which are domestic Greek exposures. We expect that new NPE targets (to be agreed with the ECB and announced for 2020/21) will imply a halving or more of these NPEs, with a little more than half predicated on sales and securitizations.

One key unknown remains the depth and appetite for securitized-mortgage (secured and unsecured) and SME NPL portfolios, as well as further sales. New targets will likely imply collective capacity for about 25 billion euros of transactions through 2021, a key risk. Last reviewed by Jonathan Tyce on 11/13/18, original publish: (09/10/18)

9. Greek Bad Bank is Increasingly The Only Way Out as Shares SlideReturn to Top

The rout in Greek bank shares, with average price declines just shy of 40% over three months, will complicate ongoing discussions with SSM overseers about new bad loans and capital targets. Further, it may force the regulator and central bank to put a bad-bank plan into action. The ability to fund rights issues to shore up capital is nearly impossible and would be hugely dilutive for existing shareholders. The transfer price of assets could also prove problematic, especially given ongoing skepticism about the stability of house prices, given the banks’ growing intervention in auctions.

Piraeus remains in the line of fire, with a 28.3 billion of non-performing exposures (1H) and 5.2 billion euros of CET1 capital (fully loaded) supporting this. Greek banks reported aggregate NPEs of 86.4 billion euros. (11/13/18)

10. ECB Has Little Choice But to Kick Can Again on Greek BanksReturn to Top

While it’s clear to all onlookers that Piraeus Bank, and peers, remain undercapitalized vs. their bad-debt mountains, we believe that the ECB will struggle to pull the trigger forcing capital raises. A Bloomberg News report suggests that adverse market conditions may force the ECB to give Piraeus more time to raise about 500 million euros of Tier 2 bonds. Given, we believe, virtually zero chance of a material equity capital increase, we would expect any Tier 2 raise to come at a mid-teens yield, if at all.

Bank of Cyprus raised 220 million euros of contingent convertible debt with a fixed coupon of 12.5% in August. One of the issues facing Greek banks issuing AT1 debt will be the creation of viable distributable reserves from which the coupon can be paid. Last reviewed by Jonathan Tyce on 11/13/18, original publish: (09/28/18)

11. EFG Bond Shows How Tough Issuance Will BeReturn to Top

EFG Eurobank — arguably one of the stronger Greek banks with a profitable and material non-domestic business — shows how expensive it could be for a weaker domestically focused peer to issue capital. Its Tier 2 subordinated note, 950 million euros of which was placed with a 6.41% coupon in January, is yielding just shy of 11%, with the bond trading at 76 cents in the euro. Eurobank’s fully-loaded CET1 ratio is almost 1.5 percentage points higher than that of Piraeus and, we believe, any issuance from Piraeus would need to be priced in the mid-teens range. (09/28/18)

12. Rise of Property Auctions Raises Its Own QuestionsReturn to Top

The number of foreclosed property auctions has accelerated since moving online, with an 8,000-10,000 target for 2018 looking increasingly likely as the number of suspended auctions falls. From late 2008, Greek residential house prices fell an average of more than 40%, and now appear to have bottomed. In a practice not dissimilar to that followed by Spain’s banking system, and owing to the lack of buyers, Greek banks have been buying back 80% or more of these properties at auction.

Eurobank disclosed that it had bought 88% of 913 properties auctioned between January-July, and Alpha Bank some 80%. The practice will remain subject to skepticism, questioning whether it’s merely a means to reclassify a nonperforming exposure as a long-term asset. Minimum prices are set with reference to the property index and court discretion. (09/10/18)

A Who’s Who of Greek Banks

Greek Banks’ New Plans Target Costs, More of the Same on NPEsReturn to Top

Greek banks are entering into discussions with the Single Supervisory Mechanism to set new goals for 2021-22, with lower non-performing exposure (NPE) goals and cost-cutting topping the agenda. New plans should be detailed by year-end for most. Revenue run-rate remains a key headwind, with loss of interest income ongoing. We expect greater focus on cost-cutting, while falling provisions remain critical to improved profitability. (09/10/18)

13. Piraeus Is the Obvious Warrant on Greek Banks’ NPE DeleveragingReturn to Top

Piraeus Bank, the worst performer among Greek banks over 12 months, is the smallest by market cap and retains the largest NPE load, making it the most-geared play on the ability to reduce bad-loans. John Paulson is the bank’s second-largest shareholder (6.6%) behind the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (26% stake). A retail deposit share of 30% ranks it second behind National Bank of Greece, ensuring that its deposits base grows as inflows continue, and the loan-to-deposit ratio should tick up toward 100% as corporate loan growth picks up.

We believe that consensus expectations for fees likely understate the contribution that Piraeus’ bancassurance deal with NN group can deliver, as well as growth from credit cards and payments. It ranks second on consensus revenues, with a flat top-line of 1.9 billion euros into 2020. (09/10/18)

14. Alpha Bank’s NII Drag, NPE Outflows Remain Elephants in the RoomReturn to Top

Bad-debt cleanup for Greek banks has been prolonged by the rate of re-defaults and new entries into the non-performing-exposure category. Alpha Bank epitomizes the challenge, with a net drop of 200 million euros in the year through June, hobbled by new entries of 1.3 billion euros. To achieve its 2018 reduction goal to 21.4 billion euros, new outflows will have to accelerate to 1 billion euros, necessitating a significant step-up in liquidations. Project Jupiter (secured SME loan portfolio) should be completed in 2H, enabling disposals to take up the slack.

Loan amortization and loss of interest income from loans reclassified as NPEs is still not offset by new corporate-loan production. Net revenue expectations for Alpha are the largest among the four peers, averaging 2.2-2.3 billion euros in 2019 and 2020. (09/10/18)

15. Eurobank’s International Business Will Continue to Set It ApartReturn to Top

EFG Eurobank’s next medium-term plan will target a 15-17% non-performing exposure ratio by end-2021, less than half of the level of 40.7% at end-June. Recent sovereign debt widening will likely limit its ability to securitize up to 2 billion euros of mortgage NPEs by year-end, we believe. Similar to peers, its ELA funding will have fallen to zero by December-end, and its 20% market share should ensure domestic deposits grow by about 500 million euros per quarter as capital controls are slowly eased.

EFG’s Serbian, Bulgarian and Cypriot operations, which collectively should contribute about 120 million euros of profit annually, continue to set EFG apart from peers. NPE reduction should develop in a similar vein as before, with net flows and sales driving about two-thirds of the decrease. (09/10/18)

16. National Bank of Greece Corporate Underweight Needs to Be ClosedReturn to Top

National Bank of Greece is the HFSF’s largest holding (40%), and sell-down risk remain an overhang, though plans to lower the stake will be on ice as shares plumb news lows. With a retail deposit share of 35%, NBG has been the least active in domestic sector consolidation and will present a new medium-term plan in December. The NPE run-down target should be 6 billion euros by 2022 (vs. 16 billion euros currently), albeit with a mix shift and greater focus on sales, liquidations and securitizations.

We would expect cost-cutting to be front and center in NBG’s new plan, with further voluntary redundancies and greater emphasis on cutting administrative expenses. The bank has amassed about 4 billion euros of excess liquidity to fund growth to close its underweight exposure to Greek corporate lending. (09/10/18)

Revenue Headwinds

Greek Banks’ Conundrum Is Revenue Loss vs. Bad-Debt CleanupReturn to Top

Greek banks remain hostage, to a large extent, to the fortune of the wider economy and the success and timing of sovereign capital raising and fiscal discipline in the nation. Beyond that, the tradeoff between running off high non-performing exposure while sustaining revenue is a difficult balancing act. Tourism and exports will determine growth in the critical corporate-loan space. (09/19/18)

17. ELA-Exit Doesn’t Signal All Clear for Greek BanksReturn to Top

Greek banks’ reliance on the ECB’s emergency liquidity assistance program will fully end by early 2019, having fallen from a high of nearly 90 billion euros in mid-2015. The re-animation of the repo market, as well as inflows of about 1 billion euros a month back into the retail deposit market, suggest that the banks’ liquidity is robust. The banks’ thin capital bases, however, especially if harsh assumptions on cleanup of non-performing exposure (NPE) are applied, mean that liquidity comfort isn’t a given. (09/19/18)

18. Eurobank, Alpha Offer Most Top-Line Stability in Harsh TradeoffReturn to Top

A key challenge for Greek banks is stemming the slide in revenue as loans fall into the non-performing category and the pool of assets falls with every sale, writeoff and impending securitization. New loan production, such as there is, exists in the corporate arena where National Bank has built up several billion euros of excess liquidity to close its underweight share. We believe there is scope for non-interest income revenue to surprise on the upside, but acknowledge that the difficult tradeoff for investors remains: The higher the rate of asset-quality clean up, the greater the short-term revenue impact. (09/19/18)

19. Deposit Repricing Relief Is Largely OverReturn to Top

Two of the major drivers of Greek banks’ net interest margins in recent quarters have been the slide in retail funding costs and the exit from expensive ELA funding. Further relief from deposit-cost repricing is very limited, we believe, suggesting that new loan production and higher front-book corporate pricing will determine revenue direction. New-business rates are pricing 100-130 bps higher than the yield on existing stock. Increasing levels of eligible collateral that banks possess (as ratings improve and covered bond issuance grows) will also unlock access to cheap ECB funds, which should provide some net interest income relief. (09/19/18)

20. Tourism, NPE Cleanup Are Key Lending DriversReturn to Top

Large non-performing exposures continue to impede lending capacity, and Greek banks need accelerated balance sheet cleanup to support the real economy. Tourism will be a key driver of credit demand; the World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that tourism’s total contribution to GDP was 19.7% in 2017 and will grow to 22.7% by 2028. Export-oriented businesses are another important sector, as they have held up better during the Greek crisis, supported by external demand; the share of exports relative to GDP has risen to 36% in 2Q vs. 19% in 2009, according to Eurostat. Gradual domestic recovery and falling unemployment should stimulate credit demand and boost banks’ willingness to lend. (09/19/18)

21. Gradual Economic Recovery Remains Under WayReturn to Top

The Greek economy should continue its gradual recovery , with modest GDP growth and further declines in unemployment likely. Real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2017 reversed two years of contraction in 2015 and 2016, with unemployment falling about 6% since 2013. A Bloomberg-compiled consensus points to cumulative GDP growth of 6% over the next three years, in line with the European Union average. A further 3% drop in the unemployment is projected by 2019, but that still leave Greece with the highest unemployment rate in Europe.

House prices have began a nascent recovery after a decade of decline, with prices of urban area dwellings growing by 1% year-on-year in 2Q according to the Bank of Greece. The impact of bank-run auctions and purchases will lead to some skepticism about any price recovery. (09/19/18)

Economic Challenges Loom

End of Greece Bailout Doesn’t Mean Odyssey Is Over for BanksReturn to Top

Additional sovereign issuance, stability in peripheral bond markets and a commitment to reforms are needed to improve investor sentiment in Greece and for its banks. A high debt-to-GDP ratio of 182% means that further talks will be held with EU partners, despite June’s relief measures. Political risk in the run-up to the 2019 election shouldn’t be ignored, as it threatens progress. (09/14/18)

22. Further Bond Convergence Will Be Challenging, Despite ProgressReturn to Top

Greek bond yields have compressed significantly since the 2015 peak, however a further narrowing of premiums will be challenged by both internal and external risks. The high debt-load issue could remain unresolved for years due to its political sensitivity. Turmoil in Italy and Turkey has spilled over to Greece, driving volatility in 2018. Nascent economic growth and implementation of reforms will be the main drivers of future re-rating. S&P has upgraded the country’s credit rating to B+ with a positive outlook, yet sovereign debt remains sub-investment grade, meaning it’s excluded from the ECB’s QE program.

Sovereign yields have important implications for Greek banks as they determine wholesale funding costs. Furthermore, as banks hold Greek bonds, a decline in yields will boost capital position through the AFS reserve. (09/14/18)

23. Sovereign Issuance Needed to Test Investor InterestReturn to Top

Greece’s 24 billion-euro cash buffer, resulting from ESM disbursements, is enough to cover its financing needs for almost two years. However, it may be masking how much flexibility Greece actually has before having to tap the debt markets. Issuance plans have been halted on instability in Italy and Turkey, which has pushed debt costs up. In theory, the cash buffer should allow Greece to wait for more supportive markets, yet there’s an incentive to keeping the buffer intact as it serves as collateral for future issuance. The 10-year maturity extension of 130 billion euros of EFSF loans pushes payments beyond 2032, offering protection to private investors in the medium term.

Debt market activity for Greek banks will be closely tied to sovereign issuance, which is needed to establish investor appetite and normalization. (09/14/18)

24. Greek Debt Relief Debate Will Be Groundhog Day All Over AgainReturn to Top

Economic Report
“…Greece can…be expected to sustain a long-run primary surplus of no more than 1.5% of GDP and annual real GDP growth of around 1%, and that even achieving these outcomes will require Greece to undertake profound structural reform over time…components of the debt relief package are not sufficient to secure long-run debt sustainability…. GFN would breach the 20% of GDP threshold by 2038 and continue rising thereafter…. additional relief would be needed to secure debt sustainability.”
Greece: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Proposal, IMF
www.imf.org, July 31, 2018
Click to view the full report

Further relief will be needed for Greece, despite measures introduced in June, as its high debt load remains unsustainable in the long run. The IMF’s analysis, which shows Greece breaching its 20% gross-financing-need-to-GDP threshold in 2038, may prove optimistic. The IMF central scenario assumes a 1.8% average primary balance and GDP growth of 2.9% for the 2018-60 period. However, according to the IMF, historically the likelihood of a euro-area advanced economy sustaining a 1.5% average primary surplus for 10 years is only 12.8%. Furthermore, achieving GDP growth with a high primary surplus will be challenging given the low level of implied investment.

The EU scenario, which has Greece meeting its debt obligations, uses even more ambitious assumptions, making it highly unrealistic. (09/14/18)

2
27
Nov

Οφελος έως €300 τον μήνα από τη μη περικοπή συντάξεων

Εντός των επόμενων ημερών αναμένεται να κατατεθεί στη Βουλή η διάταξη νόμου του υπουργείου Εργασίας με την οποία θα ακυρώνεται η περικοπή των ήδη καταβαλλόμενων συντάξεων.

Αλλωστε, οι συντάξεις Ιανουαρίου 2019 θα καταβληθούν στους δικαιούχους, βάσει του σχεδιασμού, πριν από τα Χριστούγεννα, ήτοι σε μόλις 5 βδομάδες.

Σύμφωνα με πληροφορίες, οι σχετικές διατάξεις θα καταργούν τις αντίστοιχες διατάξεις του νόμου 4472 που ψηφίστηκε το 2017 και προβλέπει την περικοπή των συντάξεων που υπάρχει προσωπική διαφορά, σε ποσοστό έως 18%, για περίπου 1,42 εκατ. συντάξεις.

Για κάποιους, εφόσον γλιτώσουν και την περικοπή της εναπομείνασας προσωπικής διαφοράς στις επικουρικές συντάξεις, το όφελος ενδέχεται να ξεπερνά και τα 300 ευρώ τον μήνα.

Η μη περικοπή αφορά όχι μόνο τις κύριες συντάξεις, αλλά και τις επικουρικές όπως και τα συγκαταβαλλόμενα με τη σύνταξη οικογενειακά επιδόματα σε δημόσιο και ιδιωτικό τομέα.

Μάλιστα, σύμφωνα με τον υφυπουργό Κοινωνικής Ασφάλισης Τάσο Πετρόπουλο, περίπου 620.000 συνταξιούχοι, για τους οποίους ο επανυπολογισμός έβγαλε υψηλότερη σύνταξη με το νέο σύστη-μα από αυτήν που λαμβάνουν σήμερα, θα δουν κανονικά τις συντάξεις τους να αυξάνονται εντός Δεκεμβρίου (σύνταξη Ιανουαρίου).

Σύμφωνα με τον αρμόδιο υφυπουργό, η μέση αύξηση θα φτάσει αθροιστικά, μέσα σε 5 χρόνια, στα 90 με 96 ευρώ, καθώς θα εξακολουθήσει να ισχύει η διάταξη του νόμου Κατρούγκαλου που προβλέπει ότι η αποπληρωμή θα γίνει σε 5 δόσεις, από το 2019 έως το 2023.

Αφορά συνταξιούχους ΙΚΑ που αποχώρησαν με λιγότερα από 30 έτη ασφάλισης και ικανοποιητικές συντάξιμες αποδοχές καθώς και συνταξιούχους που ασφαλίζονταν στα πρώην ευγενή Ταμεία ΔΕΚΟ – Τραπεζών.

Παράλληλα βέβαια όλες οι υπόλοιπες συντάξεις θα παραμείνουν «παγωμένες» στα σημερινά χαμηλά επίπεδα, καθώς δεν αναμένεται κατάργηση της διάταξης που προβλέπει τη διατήρηση όλων των υπόλοιπων συντάξεων έως το 2022 στα σημερινά επίπεδα, ανεξάρτητα από την αύξηση του ΑΕΠ και του Δείκτη Τιμών Καταναλωτή.

Οπως άλλωστε «παγωμένες» θα παραμείνουν –εάν δεν υπάρξει νέα νομοθετική παρέμβαση τα επόμενα χρόνια– και όλες οι συντάξεις που σήμερα «διασώζονται», καθώς ο νόμος του 2016 που θα παραμείνει ενεργός, προβλέπει την εις βάθος χρόνου εξάλειψη της προσωπικής διαφοράς.

Αυξήσεις, από το 2022 και μετά, προβλέπεται να λάβουν μόνο οι νέοι συνταξιούχοι που ούτως ή άλλως έχουν υποστεί σημαντικές περικοπές, αλλά και αυτοί που δεν έχουν προσωπική διαφορά.

Οι αυξήσεις θα διαμορφώνονται με βάση συντελεστή που καθορίζεται κατά 50% από τη μεταβολή του ΑΕΠ και κατά 50% από τη μεταβολή του Δείκτη Τιμών Καταναλωτή.

Περίπου 200.000 συνταξιούχοι εκτιμάται ότι θα γλιτώσουν τις περικοπές των επικουρικών τους, ο επανυπολογισμός των οποίων έχει ολοκληρωθεί το 2016.

Η απόσυρση της επίμαχης διάταξης αναμένεται να διασώσει πρώην μισθωτούς ιδιωτικού τομέα, συνταξιούχους του πρ. ΕΤΕΑΜ –όσοι πέφτουν κάτω από τα 1.300 ευρώ συνολικό συνταξιοδοτικό εισόδημα διατηρούν σήμερα σημαντική προσωπική διαφορά–, εμποροϋπαλλήλους του ΤΕΑΥΕΚ, ναυτιλιακούς και τουριστικούς πράκτορες (ΤΕΑΥΝΤΠ), πρώην τραπεζοϋπαλλήλους της Τράπεζας Πίστεως (ΤΑΠΤ) και συνταξιούχους δικηγόρους.

Πηγή: Kathimerini.gr

26
Nov

Greece’s Eurobank Seeks Revival With $8 Billion Bad-Loan Plan

Greece’s Eurobank Seeks Revival With $8 Billion Bad-Loan Plan

  • Plan to securitize bad debt includes merger with Grivalia
  • Bank expects to reduce troubled loans to 15% of total in 2019
By Marcus Bensasson and Sotiris Nikas

(Bloomberg) — 

Greece’s Eurobank Ergasias SA isn’t waiting around for a state rescue, with a plan to sell about 7 billion euros ($8 billion) of troubled loans and merge with a real estate fund.

As part of the plan, the bank will merge with real estate fund Grivalia Properties REIC to create a new business named Eurobank, the two companies said. It will then shift non-performing debt to a separate vehicle that will issue senior, mezzanine and junior notes that the bank will initially retain. Some of the lower level notes would then be sold off to investors.

Read more: New Bank’s Biggest Investor Keeps Faith After Losses

Eurobank is seeking its own solution to a mountain of bad debt while Greece races to find a nationwide approach to accelerating the sale of soured loans. The government and central bank are weighing solutions that include providing state guarantees and easing payments for borrowers with modest means.

“The merger is equivalent to a stealth recap for Eurobank, not in cash but in real estate,” Thanassis Drogossis, head of equities at Athens-based Pantelakis Securities wrote in a note to clients. The deal, if approved by regulators, will result in “faster balance sheet healing,” he said.

Shareholder Uncertainty

Eurobank jumped by as much as 25 percent in Athens then lost most of the advance to trade up 3.4 percent at 49 cents as of 3:30 p.m. Grivalia gained as much as 15.2 percent, its largest increase since June 2012 and was up 7.8 percent. The benchmark FTSE/Athex index also pared gains of almost 12 percent and was 4 percent higher.

Under the plan, Eurobank will retain the most senior portion of the securitized non-performing exposures, while the first losses will be borne by Eurobank shareholders who will be allocated junior notes. Between those will be a mezzanine tranche, some of which will go to Eurobank shareholders with some sold to investors.

The deal will see Eurobank’s non-performing exposures drop to about 15 percent of total loans by the end of 2019 from the current 39 percent, then into single digits by 2021, according to the statement. The deal will also strengthen the restructured lender’s capital ratio.

The transaction values Grivalia shares at a 9 percent premium on their Friday close, the companies said. That sets the price of the acquisition at about 790 million euros.

The deal reunites Eurobank with Grivalia, which was first listed in its real estate unit in 2006 under the name Eurobank Properties REIC. The name was changed to Grivalia in 2014 as Eurobank cut its stake under regulatory pressure.

Positive Step

Eurobank’s plan for bad loans is a positive step for Greek banking and it proves that there is a lot of resilience and value, Piraeus Bank Chief Executive Officer Christos Megalou said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., which currently holds an 18 percent stake in Eurobank and a 51 percent stake in Grivalia, will become the largest shareholder in the new lender with 33 percent, according to the statement.

Once the problem loans are taken out “you’ll have a very well capitalized bank in a very good position to serve the Greek clients as well as the Greek economy,” Fairfax founder Prem Watsa said in an interview with Bloomberg.

The exchange ratio proposed is about 15.81 new Eurobank ordinary shares for every one Grivalia ordinary share, according to the statement. Eurobank shareholders will retain the number of Eurobank ordinary shares they currently hold, the companies said.

Shares in the merged company will start trading on April 24, according to the statement.

 

26
Nov

Eurobank, Grivalia Properties to Merge, Securitize NPEs

Greece’s Eurobank Ergasiasannounced plans to merge with real estate fund Grivalia Properties in a deal that will see the lender also securitize about 7 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of troubled loans.

The deal will see the bank’s ratio of non-performing exposures drop to about 15 percent by the end of 2019, from 39 percent currently, then into single digits by 2021, the two companies said in a joint statement. The deal will also increase the restructured lender’s common equity tier one ratio to 16.6 percent from 14.6 percent currently.

Shares in the merged company will start trading on April 24, according to the statement. The deal boosts Eurobank’s capital by more than 800 million euros, according to a person familiar with the deal, who asked not to be identified.

The exchange ratio proposed is about 15.81 new Eurobank ordinary shares for every one Grivaliaordinary share, according to the statement. Eurobank shareholders will retain the number of Eurobank ordinary shares they currently hold, the companies said.

25
Nov

Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Italy close to East Med pipe line deal

Nov. 25, 2018 (Xinhua) — Four Mediterranean countries, Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Israel are close to an agreement to construct the world’s longest undersea pipeline to transfer natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean energy fields to Europe, a Cypriot government source was quoted as saying on Sunday.

“An agreement is expected to be reached soon among the countries involved in the project. After the deal is concluded, it will take about five weeks for its provisions to be examined by the European Union”, the government source told Cyprus state broadcaster.

The source was commenting on a report by an Israeli newspaper which said that the deal has already been struck.

The Cypriot government source said that Cyprus is also looking into all possible alternatives.

“A lot will depend on the results of the drilling of ExxonMobil that is currently underway”, the source added.

The European Union has funded a 100 million euro (113 million U.S. dollars) feasibility study and has voiced its backing to the project.

The drilling is carried out by ExxonMobil in association with Qatar petroleum in Cyprus’ offshore block 10, within the island’s exclusive economic zone,some 95 nautical miles off its south shores.

The consortium has planned two more drillings after the current one, also within Cypriot block 10.

One of the alternatives Cyprus is examining is building a two-train liquefaction plant, a much more expensive project of 10 billion euros, compared to a cost of up to 6.2 billion euros for the building of the pipeline.

A possible discovery of a sizeable gas field will boost Cyprus’ plans for a liquefaction plant along with its participation in the East Med project.

Cyprus has discovered two gas fields of a total capacity of 10 to 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Israel has tapped four gas fields, with a total capacity of over 40 trillion cubic feet.

The planned undersea pipe to take the gas to Europe will be 2,200 kilometers long. It will start from a point 170 kilometers off the Cypriot south shores and will extent to Cypriot territory, then to Greece, with its terminal planned close to Otranto in southeast Italy.

It will be the longest but also the deepest pipeline, according to gas industry sources.

It will have a capacity of up to 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually and can cover about one fifth of Europe’s need in gas, which is estimated to rise to 100 billion cubic meters by 2030.

Reports in Israeli media have said that the project is expected to begin within a few months. (1 euro = 1.13 U.S. dollars)

Copyright 2018 XINHUA NEWS AGENCY

22
Nov

EFSF Approves Medium-Term Debt Relief Measures for Greece

EFSF Approves Medium-Term Debt Relief Measures for Greece

Thursday, November 22, 2018 02:36 PM

The Board of Directors of the European Financial Stability Facility approved the implementation of a set of medium-term debt relief measures for Greece, according to a press release.

  • Euro area finance ministers had endorsed the measures in June
  • “We estimate that the total package of medium-term measures agreed by ministers last June should lead to a cumulative reduction of Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio of around 30 percentage points until 2060,” ESM Managing Director and EFSF CEO Klaus Regling says in statement
  • Measures include deferral of interest and amortisation by 10 years on EU96.4b of EFSF loans to Greece and extension of the maximum weighted average maturity of these loans by 10 years
  • The board also approved the abolition of an annual penalty attached to some of the country’s loans
21
Nov

Εγκρίθηκε ο ελληνικός προϋπολογισμός – Καμία περικοπή στις συντάξεις

Την πρώτη έκθεση στο πλαίσιο ενισχυμένης εποπτείας για την Ελλάδα ενέκρινε η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή.

Σύμφωνα με την ανακοίνωση της Επιτροπής, η έκθεση καταλήγει στο συμπέρασμα ότι το σχέδιο προϋπολογισμού που υπέβαλε η Ελλάδα για το 2019 «εξασφαλίζει τη συμμόρφωση με τη δέσμευσή της να επιτύχει πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα ύψους 3,5 % του ΑΕΠ».

Επιπρόσθετα, η Κομισιόν χαρακτηρίζει «μέτρια» την πρόοδο όσον αφορά τις μεταρρυθμίσεις σε άλλους τομείς, καλώντας τις Αρχές να «επισπεύσουν την υλοποίησή τους για να επιτευχθούν οι στόχοι τους».

Συγχρόνως, επισημαίνει ότι η τελική έκθεση, βάσει της οποίας θα αποφασιστεί η εφαρμογή των μέτρων για το χρέος, που περιλαμβάνουν τις επιστροφές των ANFAs και SMPs, θα δημοσιευθεί στις αρχές του επόμενου έτους.

«Η ενεργοποίηση των μέτρων για το χρέος, η οποία θα εξαρτάται από την εφαρμογή συγκεκριμένων πολιτικών και συμφωνήθηκε στο πλαίσιο της σημαντικής δέσμης μέτρων για το χρέος που αποφασίστηκε κατά τη συνεδρίαση της Ευρωομάδας της 22ας Ιουνίου 2018, θα εξαρτηθεί από τη θετική αξιολόγηση στη δεύτερη έκθεση, η οποία θα συνταχθεί βάσει του πλαισίου ενισχυμένης εποπτείας. Αυτή η έκθεση θα δημοσιευθεί στις αρχές του επόμενου έτους», υπογραμμίζεται στην ανακοίνωση της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής.

Ικανοποίηση από Κομισιόν

Την ικανοποίηση του για την γενική οικονομική κατάσταση στην Ευρώπη και ειδικότερα στην Ελλάδα, εξέφρασε από τις Βρυξέλλες ο αντιπρόεδρος της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής Βαλντις Ντομπρόφσκις.

Ο κ. Ντομπρόφσκις παρουσιάζοντας τις εκθέσεις της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής για τους επόμενους προϋπολογισμούς των κρατών της ευρωζώνης συνεχάρη στην εισαγωγική του ομιλία την Ελλάδα για τον πρώτο προϋπολογισμό που υπέβαλε μετά τα μνημόνια τονίζοντας ότι πρέπει να συνεχιστεί η εφαρμογή των διαρθρωτικών αλλαγών. Ταυτοχρόνως στηλίτευσε τα όσα προβλέπει ο ιταλικός προϋπολογισμός τον οποίο δήλωσε ότι η Επιτροπή δεν μπορεί να τον αποδεχτεί.

Ο αρμόδιος για τις οικονομικές υποθέσεις Επίτροπος Πιερ Μοσκοβισί αναφερόμενος στην Ελλάδα χαιρέτισε το γεγονός ότι η Ελλάδα έχει εισέλθει σε ένα «νέο στάδιο» οικονομικής σταθερότητας. Όπως ανέφερε κατά την άποψη της Επιτροπής η Ελλάδα συμμορφώνεται με τους κανόνες του Συμφώνου Σταθερότητας και σέβεται τις δημοσιονομικές δεσμεύσεις που ανέλαβε. «Οι προσπάθειες των Ελλήνων αποδίδουν τώρα καρπούς ως προς τα δημόσια οικονομικά, την οικονομική μεγέθυνση και την κοινωνική δικαιοσύνη» είπε ο Μοσκοβισί σημειώνοντας πως ανοίγει πλέον ο δρόμος για ακύρωση μέτρων που είχαν προνομοθετηθεί σε σχέση με τις συντάξεις και τα οποία αν εφαρμόζονταν θα μείωναν τις συντάξεις 1,4 εκατ. συνταξιούχων στην Ελλάδα. Ο ίδιος εξέφρασε την πεποίθηση πως το Συμβούλιο θα εγκρίνει τη γνώμη της Επιτροπής για την Ελλάδα.

Ο Επίτροπος Μοσκοβισί ανέφερε επίσης πως πέντε κράτη, με πρώτη την Ιταλία, κινδυνεύουν να εμφανίσουν δημοσιονομικές ανισορροπίες. Ως προς την Ιταλία έκρουσε τον κώδωνα του κινδύνου λέγοντας πως ο προϋπολογισμός της αναγκάζει την Επιτροπή να αναλάβει τις ευθύνες της και να προτείνει στις χώρες της ευρωζώνης να κινήσουν τη διαδικασία περί υπερβολικού ελλείμματος κατά της Ιταλίας.

Πηγή: ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ

21
Nov

Italian Bonds Rally as Salvini Seen Open to Compromise on Budget

Italian Bonds Rally as Salvini Seen Open to Compromise on Budget

By John Ainger

(Bloomberg) — 

Italian bonds climbed after a report that Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini may be open to revisions on a budget criticized by the European Union.

Ten-year bond yields headed for the biggest drop this month and the euro rose after La Stampa newspaper reported Salvini may be willing to lower spending. The European Commission is due to publish its assessment of the budget at 11 a.m. London time, with a rejection potentially leading to fines for the country.

Italy’s 10-year bond yields fell 12 basis points to 3.50 percent, having touched 3.72 percent Tuesday, the highest level since Oct. 19. The spread over those on their German peers narrowed to 313 basis points.

“If the comments from Salvini are true and some sort of compromise is found, sanctions may even be avoided, which would make it likely indeed that the BTP-bund spread retightens back to the 250-275 area,” said Martin van Vliet, senior interest-rate strategist at ING Groep NV.

The euro extended an advance to gain 0.3 percent to $1.1400, as its correlation with Italian bond moves increased. Italy’s FTSE MIB Index rose 1 percent, snapping five days of losses.

If the EU follows through with sanctions, it could levy fines of 0.2 percent of Italy’s gross domestic product, which could increase to 0.5 percent if the government in Rome doesn’t amend its budget.

 

21
Nov

Κατατίθεται στη Βουλή ο προϋπολογισμός

Κατατίθεται σήμερα στη Βουλή ο προϋπολογισμός του 2019, ο οποίος θα προβλέπει πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα 3,6% ΑΕΠ, έναντι στόχου 3,5%, καθώς και ρυθμό ανάπτυξης 2,5% έναντι 2% φέτος.

Για το 2018 εκτιμάται ότι θα υπάρξει σημαντική υπέρβαση του πρωτογενούς πλεονάσματος απο τον στόχο του 3,5% του ΑΕΠ, όπως προκύπτει από την ιδιαίτερα θετική πορεία των δημοσιονομικών μεγεθών απο την αρχή του έτους. Γι’ αυτό, και σύμφωνα με πληροφορίες, η κυβέρνηση σκοπεύει να προχωρήσει, για ακόμη ένα έτος, στη διανομή κοινωνικού μερίσματος με βάση εισοδηματικά κριτήρια σε ασθενέστερες οικονομικές ομάδες.

Ο νέος προϋπολογισμός θα προβλέπει την μη περικοπή των συντάξεων, καθώς και ήδη εξαγγελθείσες παρεμβάσεις οι οποίες θα δρομολογηθούν το αμέσως επόμενο διάστημα, οι βασικότερες εκ των οποίων είναι:

– το πρόγραμμα επιδότησης στέγης με εισοδηματικά και περιουσιακά κριτήρια

– οι μειώσεις των ασφαλιστικών εισφορών ελεύθερων επαγγελματιών, αυτοαπασχολούμενων και αγροτών κατά 1/3 και εφαρμογή της ελάχιστης εισοδηματικής βάσης για την επικουρική ασφάλιση και την εφάπαξ παροχή

– η επιδότηση στις εισφορές κοινωνικής ασφάλισης των νέων εργαζομένων

– μείωση του ΕΝΦΙΑ κατά 10% μεσοσταθμικά και κατά 30% για τους μικροιδιοκτήτες

– μείωση του φόρου εισοδήματος νομικών προσώπων σταδιακά, από 29% σε 25% σε ορίζοντα τετραετίας (μία μονάδα ανά έτος).

– μείωση του φορολογικού συντελεστή επί των διανεμόμενων μερισμάτων κατά 5 ποσοστιαίες μονάδες.

– το πρόγραμμα «Βοήθεια στο σπίτι». Μετατρέπεται το τρέχον εργασιακό καθεστώς 3.000 εργαζομένων ορισμένου χρόνου σε αορίστου χρόνου

– η ενίσχυση των σχολικών μονάδων Ειδικής Αγωγής, με μονιμοποίηση 4.500 εκπαιδευτικών.

Σημειώνεται ότι το πακέτο θετικών μέτρων δεν θα είναι ύψους 750 εκατομμυρίων, όπως είχε προϋπολογιστεί αρχικά, αλλά θα ξεπεράσουν τα 900 εκατομμύρια, καθώς έχει εξασφαλιστεί ο σχετικός δημοσιονομικός χώρος για το 2019 και μετά.

Πηγή: ΑΠΕ

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